Evaluating Public Transit Reforms for Shrinking and Aging Populations: The Case of Takamatsu, Japan
Evaluating Public Transit Reforms for Shrinking and Aging Populations: The Case of Takamatsu, Japan
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DOI：
10.3390/futuretransp1030026
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发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Kii;Yukiharu Goda;Tetsuya Tamaki;Tatsuya Suzuki
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Kii;Yukiharu Goda;Tetsuya Tamaki;Tatsuya Suzuki
预计在不久的将来，世界各地的许多中小城市将经历人口的快速萎缩和老龄化。在日本，除了最大的城市之外，这些巨大的人口变化已经在所有城市开始，迫切需要重新设计公共交通系统，以满足较小的老年人口的交通需求。高松市是一个拥有42万人口的中等城市，为了更好地服务老龄化、劳动年龄人口减少的城市，目前正在重新设计交通系统。我们使用基于代理的交通模拟模型MATSim预测的后果高松的交通系统改革的运输行为在2050年。我们的分析揭示了高松的交通改革的影响如何在地理和时间上有所不同，特别是对老年居民的流动性，我们讨论的社会影响。
Many small and midsized cities around the world are expected to experience rapid shrinking and aging of their populations in the near future. In Japan, these dramatic demographic shifts have already begun in all but the largest cities, creating an urgent need to redesign public transportation systems to accommodate the transit needs of smaller, older populations. Here we focus on the specific case of Takamatsu, a medium-sized city with a population of 420,000 that is currently redesigning its transit system to better serve an aging city with a declining working-age population. We use the agent-based transportation simulation model MATSim to predict the ramifications of Takamatsu’s transit system reforms on transportation behavior in the year 2050. Our analysis reveals how the effects of Takamatsu’s transit reforms vary geographically and temporally, with societal implications—particularly for the mobility of elderly residents—that we discuss.