Human in the Loop: Predicted Likelihood of Vehicular Mission Success and Safety
Human in the Loop: Predicted Likelihood of Vehicular Mission Success and Safety
复制标题
人在循环中：车辆任务成功和安全的预测可能性
DOI：
10.2514/1.c031418
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
E. Suhir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Suhir
引入极值分布型的双指数概率分布函数，量化人类在操作飞机、航天器、船、直升机、铁路车辆等交通工具时无法履行职责的可能性。这种失败，如果有的话，是由于在需要应付高水平（异常和非正常）的精神工作量时，人的能力因素不足。建议的概率分布函数适用于不完美的人员、不完美的设备/仪器以及不确定和可能恶劣的环境共同导致车辆任务失败和/或安全性不足的可能性的情况。虽然人类的表现以双指数概率分布函数为特征，但设备/仪器的性能（在分析中包括硬件和软件的性能）以威布尔分布为特征，并且不确定环境的作用是通过发生预期严重程度的恶劣环境条件的概率来考虑的。在进行适当的敏感性分析后，在制定人员选择和培训指南时，在选择适当的模拟条件时，以及/或在需要确定现有的自动化水平和所使用的设备/仪器是否在非正常但并非不可能的情况下足够时，所建议的心理工作量/人能力因素模型及其可能的修改和推广可能会有所帮助。如果没有，则应该开发和安装额外的和/或更先进的，可能更昂贵的设备或仪器。
A double-exponential probability distribution function of the extreme value distribution type is introduced to quantify the likelihood of the failure of a human to perform his/her duties when operating a vehicle: an aircraft, a spacecraft, a boat, a helicopter, a railroad vehicle, etc. Such a failure, if any, is attributed to the insufficient human capacity factor when there is a need to cope with a high-level (extraordinary and offnormal) mental workload. The suggested probability distribution function is applied to a situation when an imperfect human, imperfect equipment/ instrumentation, and an uncertain and possibly harsh environment contribute jointly to the likelihood of a vehicular mission failure and/or insufficient safety.While the human’s performance is characterizedby thedouble-exponential probability distribution function, the performance of the equipment/instrumentation (which includes, in the analysis, the performance of both the hardware and the software) is characterized by the Weibull distribution, and the role of the uncertain environment is considered by the probability of the occurrence of harsh environmental conditions of an anticipated level of severity. It is believed that the suggested mental-workload/human-capacityfactor model and its possible modifications and generalizations can be helpful, after appropriate sensitivity analyses are carried out, when developing guidelines for personnel selection and training, when choosing the appropriate simulation conditions, and/or when there is a need to decide if the existing level of automation and the employed equipment/instrumentation are adequate in offnormal, but not impossible, situations. If not, additional and/or more advanced, and perhaps more expensive, equipment or instrumentation should be developed and installed.