Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response
Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
R. Emerton;H. Cloke;A. Ficchí;Laurence Hawker;Sara de Wit;L. Speight;C. Prudhomme;Philip Rundell-Philip-Rundel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Emerton;H. Cloke;A. Ficchí;Laurence Hawker;Sara de Wit;L. Speight;C. Prudhomme;Philip Rundell-Philip-Rundel
诸如台风“海燕”(2013年，东南亚)和非洲之角干旱(2011-2012年)等人道主义灾难都是预测到的自然灾害，但没有对预测采取充分行动，导致大量生命损失。这些事件，再加上国际上通过的《仙台减少灾害风险框架》，促使人们努力从早期预警中及早采取行动。通过基于预测的筹资(FBF)和人道主义紧急情况和复原力科学(SHER)方案等举措，在利用科学和预报支持国际人道主义组织和政府及早采取行动和提高抗灾能力方面正在取得进展。然而，在系统地利用预报进行准备和应对方面仍然存在许多挑战。通过切变建立的研究界使英国政府的国际发展部能够委托一个合作的科学家小组为2019年影响莫桑比克的飓风Idai和Kenneth制作针对人道主义决策者的概率实时洪水预报和风险公告。对Idai和Kenneth期间的公告创建过程进行审查和严格评估，包括评估预报信息以及这些公告有多有用的证据。在这方面，这项工作力求驾驭国家和国际任务规定、能力以及在预测、预警和预期行动方面的合作的“模糊图景”，最终目的是找出今后可以做得更好的地方。讨论了总结的经验教训和未来的建议，以使预报信息的制作者和使用者能够更好地合作。
Humanitarian disasters such as Typhoon Haiyan (SE Asia, 2013) and the Horn of Africa drought (2011–2012) are examples of natural hazards that were predicted, but where forecasts were not sufficiently acted upon, leading to considerable loss of life. These events, alongside international adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, have motivated efforts to enable early action from early warnings. Through initiatives such as Forecast-based Financing (FbF) and the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) programme, progress is being made towards the use of science and forecasts to support international humanitarian organisations and governments in taking early action and improving disaster resilience. However, many challenges remain in using forecasts systematically for preparedness and response. The research community in place through SHEAR enabled the UK government's Department for International Development to task a collaborative group of scientists to produce probabilistic real-time flood forecast and risk bulletins, aimed at humanitarian decision-makers, for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which impacted Mozambique in 2019.The process of bulletin creation during Idai and Kenneth is reviewed and critically evaluated, including evaluation of the forecast information alongside evidence for how useful the bulletins were. In this context, this work seeks to navigate the “murky landscape” of national and international mandates, capacities, and collaborations for forecasting, early warning and anticipatory action, with the ultimate aim of finding out what can be done better in the future. Lessons learnt and future recommendations are discussed to enable better collaboration between producers and users of forecast information.