Understanding long-term trends in smoking in England, 1972-2019: an age-period-cohort approach.
Understanding long-term trends in smoking in England, 1972-2019: an age-period-cohort approach.
复制标题
了解 1972 年至 2019 年英国吸烟的长期趋势：年龄阶段队列方法。
DOI：
10.1111/add.15696
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Opazo Breton M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Opazo Breton M
背景和目标 50 多年来，英国吸烟率一直在下降，但仍然是一个普遍存在的主要公共卫生问题。本研究使用年龄-时期-队列（APC）方法来测量个人吸烟行为的生命周期、历史和代际模式。设计APC分析从三项全国代表性调查中获得的重复横断面吸烟率数据。设置英格兰（1972-2019）。参与者年龄在18-90岁之间。测量我们研究了18至90岁的单一年份中当前吸烟的相对几率与年龄的关系， 24组2年调查期（1972-73年至2018-19年）和20组5年出生队列（1907-11年至1997-2001年）。研究了两组出生队列的年龄和周期率：18-25岁和25岁以上。研究结果相对于18岁，目前吸烟的几率随着年龄的增长而增加，直到25岁左右[比值比（OR） = 1.48，95%置信区间（CI） = 1.41–1.56]然后下降逐渐到 90 岁（OR = 0.06，95% CI = 0.04–0.08）。与 1972-73 年相比，它们也几乎呈线性下降（2018-19 年：OR = 0.30，95% CI = 0.26-0.34），并且与 1902-06 年出生队列相比，下降幅度最大，其中 1992-96 年出生队列观察到的下降幅度最大（OR = 0.44，95% CI = 0.35–0.46）和1997–2001（OR = 0.35，95% CI = 0.74–0.88）。连续两年，18-25 岁年龄组的吸烟率平均下降了 7%，25 岁以上的吸烟率平均下降了 5%。 结论 近几十年来，英格兰的吸烟率似乎有所下降，主要是由于 25 岁之前吸烟率的下降，以及 25 岁之后戒烟的影响较小。
Background and aimsSmoking prevalence has been falling in England for more than 50 years, but remains a prevalent and major public health problem. This study used an age–period–cohort (APC) approach to measure lifecycle, historical and generational patterns of individual smoking behaviour.DesignAPC analysis of repeated cross‐sectional smoking prevalence data obtained from three nationally representative surveys.SettingEngland (1972–2019).ParticipantsIndividuals aged 18–90 years.MeasurementsWe studied relative odds of current smoking in relation to age in single years from 18 to 90, 24 groups of 2‐year survey periods (1972–73 to 2018–19) and 20 groups of 5‐year birth cohorts (1907–11 to 1997–2001). Age and period rates were studied for two groups of birth cohorts: those aged 18–25 years and those aged over 25 years.FindingsRelative to age 18, the odds of current smoking increased with age until approximately age 25 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41–1.56] and then decreased progressively to age 90 (OR = 0.06, 95% CI = 0.04–0.08). They also decreased almost linearly with period relative to 1972–73 (for 2018–19: OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.26–0.34) and with birth cohort relative to 1902–06, with the largest decreased observed for birth cohort 1992–96 (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.35–0.46) and 1997–2001 (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.74–0.88). Smoking declined in the 18–25 age group by an average of 7% over successive 2‐year periods and by an average of 5% in those aged over 25.ConclusionsSmoking in England appears to have declined over recent decades mainly as a result of reduced smoking uptake before age 25, and to a lesser extent to smoking cessation after age 25.