Prediction of death after percutaneous coronary interventional procedures
Prediction of death after percutaneous coronary interventional procedures
复制标题
DOI：
10.1067/mhj.2000.105299
复制
发表时间：
2000-06-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Holmes, DR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rihal, CS;Grill, DE;Holmes, DR
背景：由于病例组合和实践模式的差异，预测和比较经皮冠状动脉介入手术的手术死亡率具有内在的困难。目前尚不清楚现代扩大的患者选择标准和更新的技术方法的影响。我们的目的是确定是否一个风险方程无聊的患者相关的变量，并从一个独立的数据集可以准确地预测手术死亡后，经皮冠状动脉介入治疗在当前的时代，方法和结果的分析是由马约诊所冠状动脉介入数据库1995年1月1日，1997年10月31日。使用纽约州多变量风险评分计算预期死亡率。3387例患者。进行了3830例手术（55.1%支架），预期死亡率为2.32%，观察死亡率为2.38%（P =不显著）。来自纽约多变量模型的风险评分对死亡具有高度预测性（卡方= 213.8; P <0.0001）。存在高风险病变的特点，如钙，血栓，或C型病变是适度与death.Conclusions的纽约州的多变量模型准确预测程序死亡在我们的数据库。
Background The prediction and comparison of procedural death oiler percutaneous coronary interventional procedures is inherently difficult because of variations in case mix and practice patterns. The impact of modern, expanded patient selection criteria, and newer technologic approaches is unknown. Our objective was to determine whether a risk equation bored on patient-related variables and derived from an independent data set can accurately predict procedural death after percutaneous coronary intervention in the current era.Methods and Results An analysis was made of the Mayo Clinic Coronary Interventional Database January 1, 1995, to October 31, 1997. Expected mortality rate was calculated with the use of the New York State multivariate risk score. In 3387 patients. 3830 procedures (55.1% stents) were performed, with an expected mortality rate ai 2.32% and observed mortality rate of 2.38% (P = not significant). The risk score derived from the New York multivariate model was highly predictive of death (chi-square = 213.8; P < .0001). The presence of a high-risk lesion characteristic such as calcium, thrombus, or type C lesion was modestly associated with death.Conclusions The New York State multivariate model accurately predicted procedural death in our database.