Spatio-temporal pattern of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, East China: Potential effect of the Yangtze River - Huaihe River Water Transfer Project
Spatio-temporal pattern of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, East China: Potential effect of the Yangtze River - Huaihe River Water Transfer Project
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安徽省血吸虫病时空格局：江淮调水工程的潜在影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.parint.2018.05.007
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Zhang Zhi-Jie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cao Zhi-Guo;Li Si;Zhao Ya-E;Wang Tian-Ping;Bergquist Robert;Huang Yin-Yin;Gao Feng-Hua;Hu Yi;Zhang Zhi-Jie
安徽省是华东地区血吸虫病典型流行区之一，大面积的湖泊、沼泽地区为中间宿主钉螺的生长繁殖提供了理想的环境。随着2016年底江淮调水工程竣工，血吸虫病疫区预计将扩大，控制血吸虫病仍面临挑战。基于2006-2015年安徽县县级年度监测数据，通过空间（当地Moran'sIand灵活扫描统计）和时空扫描统计（Kulldorff）进行时空聚类分析，评估风险格局。结果发现，血吸虫病血清流行率显着降低并维持在较低水平。聚类结果显示，血吸虫病的空间范围有所收缩，但整个研究区域的钉螺分布在地理上保持稳定。血吸虫病和钉螺聚集性疫情在长江沿岸很常见。考虑到正在进行的长江水利工程对血吸虫病潜在传播的影响，应重点加强输水新线穿越的枞阳县和安庆县的监测和控制。还应注意贵池，因为它靠近 YHWTP 规划的入口之一。
Anhui Province has been one of typical epidemic areas of schistosomiasis in East China as a wide range of large lake and marshland regions provide an ideal environment for growth and reproduction of the intermediate snail host. With the completion of the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Water Transfer Project (YHWTP), launched by the end of 2016, the epidemic areas are expected to expand and controlling schistosomiasis remains a challenge. Based on annual surveillance data at the county level in Anhui for the period 2006–2015, spatial and temporal cluster analyses were conducted to assess the pattern of risk through spatial (Local Moran'sIand flexible scan statistic) and space-time scan statistic (Kulldorff). It was found that schistosomiasis sero-prevalence was dramatically reduced and maintained at a low level. Cluster results showed that spatial extent of schistosomiasis contracted, but snail distribution remained geographically stable across the study area. Clusters, both for schistosomiasis and snail presence, were common along the Yangtze River. Considering the effect of the ongoing YHWTP on the potential spread of schistosomiasis, Zongyang County and Anqing, which will be transected by the new water-transfer route, should be given a priority for strengthened surveillance and control. Attention should also be paid to Guichi since it is close to one of the planned inlets of the YHWTP.