Latitudinal gradients in the productivity of European migrant warblers have not shifted northwards during a period of climate change
Latitudinal gradients in the productivity of European migrant warblers have not shifted northwards during a period of climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.12267
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Robinson, Robert A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eglington, Sarah M.;Julliard, Romain;Robinson, Robert A.
目标随着全球气温升高，许多物种分布呈现出向极地转移的趋势，预计这一趋势将在未来几十年持续下去。然而，这种转变背后的机制尚不清楚。在这里，我们量化了大规模温度变化对一群候鸟繁殖产出的影响，以评估未来范围变化的可能性。位置西欧。方法我们使用 1994-2006 年根据持续努力鸣响协议收集的 350,000 只鸟类的捕获数据，来估计在欧洲繁殖的七种迁徙莺（林莺科）的生产力（捕获的幼鸟的百分比）。 通过拟合广义线性混合模型来计算春季温度和纬度。结果在我们的七个研究物种中，有六个物种的生产力在中纬度地区最高，并且在研究期间没有显着变化。只有一种物种（芦苇莺、Acrocephalus scirpaceus）在北部地区表现出预期的生产力增加。七个物种中的六个也显示出当地适应的证据，随着温度偏离当地平均水平，生产力下降。然而，对于其中三个物种来说，大多数地点的最适温度高于当地平均温度。 主要结论这些结果表明，生产力的纬度梯度可能会影响大规模的丰度模式，但对当地气候条件的适应有可能限制许多物种向北移动的速度。
AimAs global temperatures have increased, many species distributions have exhibited polewards shifts, a trend that is predicted to continue in future decades. However, the mechanisms underlying such shifts are not well understood. Here we quantify the impact of large-scale variation in temperature on reproductive output within a group of migratory birds to assess the potential for future range changes.LocationWestern Europe.MethodsWe use data from captures of 350,000 individual birds, collected under constant effort ringing protocols from 1994-2006, to estimate productivity (percentage of juveniles caught) for seven species of migrant warblers (family Sylviidae) breeding in Europe in relation to spring temperature and latitude by fitting generalized linear mixed models.ResultsProductivity was highest at mid-latitudes for six of our seven study species and did not change significantly over the study period. Only one species (reed warbler, Acrocephalus scirpaceus) showed increased productivity at northern sites as expected. Six of the seven species also showed evidence for local adaptation, with productivity decreasing as temperatures diverged from the local mean. However, for three of these species the optimum' temperature was greater than the local mean temperature at the majority of sites.Main conclusionsThese results indicate that latitudinal gradients in productivity are likely to influence large-scale abundance patterns, but that adaptation to local climate conditions has the potential to constrain the rate of northward range shifts in many species.