Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events
Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events
复制标题
地中海强降水事件允许对流集合预报系统的水文气象评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Richard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Vié;G. Molinie;O. Nuissier;B. Vincendon;V. Ducrocq;F. Bouttier;E. Richard
摘要。对不同对流允许集合预测系统（eps）的性能进行了评估，重点是强降水事件（HPEs）。对流尺度EPS配置包括侧向边界条件（lbc）的扰动，通过使用全局集合来提供lbc，初始条件（ic）通过集合数据同化技术和微物理参数化的扰动来解释部分模型误差。在为期18天的时间内进行概率评估。当lbc和ic的不确定性一起考虑时，发现有明显的改善，但所选择的微物理扰动对概率分数没有显著影响。实施了三个HPE案例研究的创新评估过程。首先，极大值图提供了强降雨的多尺度分析。其次，利用每小时集合降水预报作为输入，通过计算流量预报进行水文评价。所有的集合行为相似，但差异被发现突出微物理扰动对HPEs预测的影响，特别是涉及复杂的小规模过程的情况。
Abstract. An assessment of the performance of different convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) is performed, with a focus on Heavy Precipitating Events (HPEs). The convective-scale EPS configuration includes perturbations of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) by using a global ensemble to provide LBCs, initial conditions (ICs) through an ensemble data assimilation technique and perturbations of microphysical parameterisations to account for part of model errors. A probabilistic evaluation is conducted over an 18-day period. A clear improvement is found when uncertainties on LBCs and ICs are considered together, but the chosen microphysical perturbations have no significant impact on probabilistic scores. Innovative evaluation processes for three HPE case studies are implemented. First, maxima diagrams provide a multi-scale analysis of intense rainfall. Second, an hydrological evaluation is performed through the computation of discharge forecasts using hourly ensemble precipitation forecasts as an input. All ensembles behave similarly, but differences are found highlighting the impact of microphysical perturbations on HPEs forecasts, especially for cases involving complex small-scale processes.