The Future of Indonesian Food Consumption
The Future of Indonesian Food Consumption
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印度尼西亚食品消费的未来
DOI：
10.52813/jei.v8i1.13
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Firdaus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bustanul Arifin;N. Achsani;D. Martianto;Linda Karlina Sari;A. Firdaus
本研究旨在以2017年的食品消费基线和2025年的预测为里程碑，建立到2045年印度尼西亚食品消费的未来模型，并为2020-2024年的下一个中期发展规划制定与食品和相关问题相关的政策。印度尼西亚食品消费的预测需求是基于基线收入与食品消费之间的函数关系，使用三种不同的经济增长情景：基线、中等和乐观。采用近乎理想需求系统（AIDS）方法估计粮食消费变化。Susenas 2017年的数据被用作粮食需求模型的基线。Susenas从1990年到2016年的数据被用来分析印度尼西亚所有33个省的选定食品消费趋势以及食品消费、价格趋势和收入之间的关系。结果表明，印度尼西亚未来的粮食需求是由现有需求、收入、价格及其构成以及影响消费行为和趋势的各种因素决定的。该政策应侧重于需求方管理与供应方或提高生产力之间的平衡，因为大多数粮食生产中心位于爪哇。
This study aims to develop a model of the future of Indonesia’s food consumption up to 2045, using a baseline of food consumption in 2017 and projections to 2025 as milestones, and to draw policy relevance on food and related issues for the next Medium-Term Development Planning of 2020–2024. The projected demand of Indonesian food consumption is built based on the functional relationship between income and food consumption at the baseline using three different scenarios of economic growth: baseline, moderate, and optimistic. Method of Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) was implemented to estimate changes of food consumption. Susenas data from 2017 is used as the baseline of food demand model. Susenas data from 1990–2016 is used to analyze selected food consumption trends and the relationship between food consumption, price trends, and income in all 33 provinces of Indonesia. The results show that future food demand in Indonesia is determined by existing demand, income, price and its composition, and various other factors that affect the behavior and trends of consumption. The policy should focus on the balance between demand-side management and supply-side or productivity improvement, as the majority of food production centers are located in Java.