Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.
Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0164875
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Sanders G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cadol D;Elmore AJ;Guinn SM;Engelhardt KA;Sanders G
潮汐生境有多种物种，并提供水文服务，如海岸线保护和营养衰减。沉积物和生物量的增加使潮汐沼泽和沼泽能够垂直生长，从而对海平面上升提供一定程度的复原力。即使海平面的加速上升克服了这种垂直恢复力，潮汐生境也有可能向内陆迁移，因为它们继续占据福尔斯在新的潮差海拔范围内的土地。然而，内陆潮汐栖息地的发达土地的存在可能会阻止这种迁移，因为人们往往努力筑堤和保护发展。为了测试内陆移民的重要性，以保持潮汐栖息地丰富的海平面上升的潜在速率的范围内，我们开发了一个空间上明确的海拔跟踪和栖息地切换模型，被称为沼泽吸积和淹没模型（MAIM），其中包括海拔依赖的净陆地表面海拔增益函数。我们应用该模型的大都市华盛顿，DC地区，发现丰富的小国家公园服务单位和其他公共开放空间沿着波托马克河潮汐系统提供了一个避难所，潮汐栖息地可能撤退，以保持总栖息地面积，即使在中度海平面上升的情况下（0.7米和1.1米上升到2100年）。在严重的海平面上升的情况下，与冰盖崩溃（1.7米，2100年）栖息地面积保持只有当没有发展是保护上升的水。如果所有现有的发展是保护，那么5%，10%和40%的总潮汐栖息地面积将失去2100年的三个海平面上升的情况下测试。
Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested.
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