Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest
Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2699.2007.01870.x
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发表时间：
2008-07-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Moritz, Craig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carnaval, Ana Carolina;Moritz, Craig
目的我们的目标是提出验证，空间上明确的假设晚第四纪分布的巴西大西洋森林，从而提供一个框架，整合分析的物种和遗传多样性在该地区。位置大西洋森林，伸展沿着巴西海岸。方法我们模拟的空间范围内的森林在三个气候情景（当前气候，6000年和21,000年前）与BIOCLIM和MAXENT。历史上稳定的地区或避难所被确定为一组网格单元，在所有模型和时间预测中推断出森林的存在。为了验证推断的避难所，我们测试我们的模型是否与森林的当前分布和化石花粉数据相匹配。结果森林模型与花粉记录一致，并预测在中央走廊（巴伊亚）有大面积的历史森林稳定性，以及一个较小的避难所（伯南布哥）沿着巴西海岸，匹配目前的中心，在多个类群和mtDNA多样性模式的物种的一个子集检查的地方特有。在多切河以南的沿海地区，预测历史稳定性较低，这与该地区的大多数地理研究一致。然而，一些广泛分布的类群在南大西洋森林中表现出高度的特有性。这可能是由于建模方法的局限性，在生态和扩散能力的差异，历史进程没有考虑到目前的研究或现有的测试datasets.Main结论古气候模型预测存在的历史森林避难所在大西洋雨林，并建议通过更新世的森林持久性的空间变化，预测模式的生物多样性在几个当地类群。研究结果表明，需要进一步研究，以记录巴西东北部大西洋雨林相对鲜为人知和受影响严重的地区的遗传和物种特有性。
Aim We aim to propose validated, spatially explicit hypotheses for the late Quaternary distribution of the Brazilian Atlantic forest, and thereby provide a framework for integrating analyses of species and genetic diversity in the region.Location The Atlantic forest, stretching along the Brazilian coast.Methods We model the spatial range of the forest under three climatic scenarios (current climate, 6000 and 21,000 years ago) with BIOCLIM and MAXENT. Historically stable areas or refugia are identified as the set of grid cells for which forest presence is inferred in all models and time projections. To validate inferred refugia, we test whether our models are matched by the current distribution of the forest and by fossil pollen data. We then investigate whether the location of inferred forest refugia is consistent with current patterns of species endemism and existing phylogeographical data.Results Forest models agree with pollen records and predict a large area of historical forest stability in the central corridor (Bahia), as well as a smaller refuge (Pernambuco) along the Brazilian coast, matching current centres of endemism in multiple taxa and mtDNA diversity patterns in a subset of the species examined. Less historical stability is predicted in coastal areas south of the Doce river, which agrees with most phylogeographical studies in that region. Yet some widely distributed taxa show high endemism in the southern Atlantic forest. This may be due to limitations of the modelling approach, differences in ecology and dispersal capability, historical processes not contemplated by the current study or inadequacy of the available test data sets.Main conclusions Palaeoclimatic models predict the presence of historical forest refugia in the Atlantic rain forest and suggest spatial variation in persistence of forests through the Pleistocene, predicting patterns of biodiversity in several local taxa. The results point to the need for further studies to document genetic and species endemism in the relatively poorly known and highly impacted areas of Atlantic rain forests of north-eastern Brazil.