A nearest-neighbour model for forecasting skier-triggered dry-slab avalanches on persistent weak layers in the Columbia Mountains, Canada
A nearest-neighbour model for forecasting skier-triggered dry-slab avalanches on persistent weak layers in the Columbia Mountains, Canada
复制标题
用于预测加拿大哥伦比亚山脉持续薄弱层上滑雪者引发的干板雪崩的最近邻模型
作者：
A. Zeidler;B. Jamieson
摘要最近邻雪崩预测模型很少利用积雪特性，然而，板厚度（H），板负载（负载）和滑雪者稳定性指数（SK 38）已被证明是有用的区域雪崩预测在哥伦比亚山脉，加拿大西部。本研究探讨了21个气象、积雪和详细变量，包括Sk 38、H和负载。每日滑雪者不稳定指数（DSI）的开发作为一个响应变量，使用滑雪者触发雪崩活动的持续薄弱层和稳定性评级在一天结束时。在等级相关分析中，Sk38，负载，以往雪崩活动，H和一些气象变量排名靠前。物理解释进行了讨论。在分类树分析中，Sk38被列为最重要的变量，并与负载一起沿着用于树结构的开发。除Sk38和Load外，积雪厚度、雪崩次数和H也有预测DSI的潜力。此外，我们一次包括所有21个变量，一次包括最近邻模型中除Sk38、H和负荷之外的所有变量。比较这些模型的性能表明，SK 38沿着负荷和H具有很高的潜力，预测区域尺度上的DSI。
Abstract Nearest-neighbour models for avalanche forecasting have made little use of snowpack properties; however, slab thickness (H), slab load (Load) and a skier stability index (Sk38) have proven useful for regional avalanche forecasting in the Columbia Mountains, western Canada. This study explores 21 meteorological, snowpack and elaborated variables including Sk38, H and Load. A daily skier instability index (DSI) is developed as a response variable using skier-triggered avalanche activity on persistent weak layers and stability ratings at the end of the day. In rank correlation analysis, Sk38, Load, previous avalanche activity, H and some meteorological variables were highly ranked. The physical explanations are discussed. In classification-tree analysis, Sk38 was ranked as the most important variable and used in the development of the tree structure along with Load. Besides Sk38 and Load, snowpack thickness, the number of previously triggered avalanches and H have potential to predict DSI. Further we included once all 21 variables, and once all variables except Sk38, H and Load in nearest-neighbour models. Comparing the performance of these models shows that Sk38 along with Load and H have high potential to forecast the DSI on a regional scale.