Preventing Deflation: Lessons from Japan's Experience in the 1990s
Preventing Deflation: Lessons from Japan's Experience in the 1990s
复制标题
防止通货紧缩：日本20世纪90年代的经验教训
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.318700
复制
发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jonathan H. Wright
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alan G. Ahearne;Joseph E. Gagnon;Jane Haltmaier;Steven B. Kamin;C. Erceg;Jon Faust;L. Guerrieri;Jennifer E. Roush;J. Rogers;N. Sheets;Jonathan H. Wright
本文考察了日本在90年代上半期的经验，以揭示通货膨胀率下降到零时出现的几个问题。是否有可能认识到一个经济体何时进入持续通缩阶段？货币政策应对通胀急剧下降的速度应该有多快？当利率接近零时，是否存在抑制货币传导机制的因素？财政政策在避免通货紧缩方面的作用是什么？我们的结论是，日本的持续通缩性衰退是日本政策制定者和观察家们始料未及的，这是当局未能提供足够的刺激来维持增长和正通胀的关键因素。一旦通货膨胀率转为负值，短期利率接近零下限，货币政策重新激活经济的难度就会大得多。我们几乎没有发现令人信服的证据表明，在20世纪90年代上半期的通货紧缩之前，货币政策或财政政策支持经济的能力显著下降。基于上述考虑，我们从日本的经验中得出了一个普遍的教训，即当通货膨胀率和利率接近于零，通货紧缩的风险很高时，无论是货币还是财政刺激，都应该超过对未来通货膨胀率和经济活动的基线预测所暗示的水平。
This paper examines Japan's experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise as inflation declines toward zero. Is it possible to recognize when an economy is moving into a phase of sustained deflation? How quickly should monetary policy respond to sharp declines in inflation? Are there factors that inhibit the monetary transmission mechanism as interest rates approach zero? What is the role for fiscal policy in warding off a deflationary episode? We conclude that Japan's sustained deflationary slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese policymakers and observers alike, and that this was a key factor in the authorities' failure to provide sufficient stimulus to maintain growth and positive inflation. Once inflation turned negative and short-term interest rates approached the zero-lower-bound, it became much more difficult for monetary policy to reactivate the economy. We found little compelling evidence that in the lead up to deflation in the first half of the 1990s, the ability of either monetary or fiscal policy to help support the economy fell off significantly. Based on all these considerations, we draw the general lesson from Japan's experience that when inflation and interest rates have fallen close to zero, and the risk of deflation is high, stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, should go beyond the levels conventionally implied by baseline forecasts of future inflation and economic activity.
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
The Korean Economy is Disappearing
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lee;Kang-Kook
通讯作者：
Kang-Kook