Nuclear emergency decision support: A behavioural OR perspective
Nuclear emergency decision support: A behavioural OR perspective
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.059
复制
发表时间：
2017-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Argyris;S. French
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Argyris;S. French
运筹研究人员、风险和决策分析师需要考虑许多行为问题。尽管OR在核应急决策支持中有许多应用，但文献并未对行为问题给予足够的关注。在设计核应急管理决策支持流程时，我们遇到了许多行为问题。在本文中，我们综合了文献中的发现和我们的经验，并确定了核应急决策支持的一些行为挑战。除了模型构建和交互方面的挑战之外，我们还关注一个经常被忽视的行为问题：分析本身及其含义的传达可能会产生行为后果。我们提出应对这些挑战的建议。首先，我们建议使用依赖于不完整偏好信息的模型，概述一个框架并用之前切尔诺贝利项目决策分析的数据来说明它。此外，我们反思了分析师在敏感地解决行为问题方面的责任，以减轻对公众压力的影响。在此过程中，我们区分了系统 1 社会审议和系统 2 社会审议，并讨论了这如何帮助在核紧急情况下构建社会审议。
Operational researchers, risk and decision analysts need consider many behavioural issues. Despite many OR applications in nuclear emergency decision support, the literature has not paid sufficient attention to behavioural matters. In working on designing decision support processes for nuclear emergency management, we have encountered many behavioural issues. In this paper we synthesise the findings in the literature with our experience and identify a number of behavioural challenges to nuclear emergency decision support. In addition to challenges in model-building and interaction, we pay attention to a behavioural issue that is often neglected: the analysis itself and the communication of its implications may have behavioural consequences. We introduce proposals to address these challenges. First, we propose the use of models relying on incomplete preference information, outlining a framework and illustrating it with data from a previous decision analysis for the Chernobyl Project. Moreover, we reflect on the responsibility that rests on the analyst in addressing behavioural issues sensitively in order to lessen the effects on public stress. In doing so we make a distinction betweenSystem 1 Societal DeliberationandSystem 2 Societal Deliberationand discuss how this can help structure societal deliberation in the context of nuclear emergencies.