What Caused the Crime Decline?
What Caused the Crime Decline?
复制标题
是什么导致犯罪率下降？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2566965
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Inimai M. Chettiar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oliver Roeder;L. Eisen;J. Bowling;J. Stiglitz;Inimai M. Chettiar
犯罪率下降的原因是什么？通过回顾来自50个州和50个最大城市的40多年的数据，研究了美国最近最不为人所知的现象之一——在过去的20年里，全国范围内的犯罪率急剧下降——并分析了导致这种现象发生的各种理论。报告得出的结论是，过度严厉的刑事司法政策，尤其是监禁人数的增加，在同一时期增幅更大，并不是犯罪率下降的主要原因。事实上，报告发现，30多年来，增加监禁作为一种控制犯罪策略的有效性一直在下降。自1990年以来，它对犯罪率的影响有限，自2000年以来就不存在了。更重要的是各种社会、经济和环境因素，如收入增长和人口老龄化。CompStat是一种数据驱动的警务技术，在引入该技术的城市，它在减少犯罪方面也发挥了重要作用。报告的结论是，考虑到大规模监禁的巨大社会、财政和经济成本，改善经济机会、使警务实践现代化以及扩大治疗和康复项目的项目都可能是更好的公共安全投资。
What Caused the Crime Decline? Examines one of the nation’s least understood recent phenomena – the dramatic decline in crime nationwide over the past two decades – and analyzes various theories for why it occurred, by reviewing more than 40 years of data from all 50 states and the 50 largest cities. It concludes that over-harsh criminal justice policies, particularly increased incarceration, which rose even more dramatically over the same period, were not the main drivers of the crime decline. In fact, the report finds that increased incarceration has been declining in its effectiveness as a crime control tactic for more than 30 years. Its effect on crime rates since 1990 has been limited, and has been non-existent since 2000.More important were various social, economic, and environmental factors, such as growth in income and an aging population. The introduction of CompStat, a data-driven policing technique, also played a significant role in reducing crime in cities that introduced it.The report concludes that considering the immense social, fiscal, and economic costs of mass incarceration, programs that improve economic opportunities, modernize policing practices, and expand treatment and rehabilitation programs, all could be a better public safety investment.