Estimating the effects of increased urbanization on surface meteorology and ozone concentrations in the New York City metropolitan region
Estimating the effects of increased urbanization on surface meteorology and ozone concentrations in the New York City metropolitan region
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.10.076
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发表时间：
2007-03-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kinney, Patrick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Civerolo, Kevin;Hogrefe, Christian;Kinney, Patrick
土地利用和污染物排放的变化会对空气质量、区域气候和人类健康产生重大影响。在这里，我们描述了一个模拟研究，旨在量化的潜在影响，在纽约市（NYC），美国大都市地区的地面气象和臭氧（O-3）浓度的城市土地覆盖的广泛变化。SLEUTH土地利用变化模型被用来推断城市土地覆盖在这个地区从“今天”（约。1990年（民国1990年），以一个未来的一年。2050年），这些预测随后被纳入气象和空气质量模拟。未来年土地利用情景的发展遵循了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）描述的“AT”情景的叙述，但仅限于大纽约地区。该建模系统由宾夕法尼亚州立大学/NCAR MM 5中尺度气象模型，稀疏矩阵算子内核排放处理系统，和美国环保署社区多尺度空气质量模型，并进行了模拟两个18天的情节，一个近过去和未来。我们的研究结果表明，纽约大都会地区的广泛城市增长有可能使下午近地表温度增加0.6摄氏度以上，行星边界层（PBL）高度增加150米以上，并使整个纽约大都会地区的水蒸气混合比减少0.6克/千克（-1）以上，所有这些变化的地域范围通常与城市化程度提高的地区相一致。另一方面，这些土地利用变化对臭氧浓度的影响更为复杂。模拟结果O-3水平约为1-5 ppb，在纽约市大部分地区，最大8小时O-3水平超过6 ppb。然而，臭氧变化的空间格局是不均匀的，也表明存在臭氧浓度下降的地区。当人为排放量增加，以符合大纽约地区的广泛城市化，O-3水平在大都市地区的外县增加，但在其他地区，包括沿海康涅狄格州和长岛海湾地区下降。(c)2006爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O-3) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was Used to extrapolate Urban land cover over this region from "present-day" (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the fUture-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the "AT' scenario described by the Intergovcrnmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model-, the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 degrees C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg(-1) across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results O-3 levels by about 1-5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O-3 levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O-3 levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.