Long-range forecasting and the Global Framework for Climate Services
Long-range forecasting and the Global Framework for Climate Services
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长期预报和全球气候服务框架
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
D. Smith
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文献类型：
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作者：
R. Graham;W. Yun;J. Kim;A. Kumar;D. Jones;L. Bettio;N. Gagnon;Rk Kolli;D. Smith
我们描述了世界气象组织（WMO）促进的长期预报国际协调的进展，特别是在季节到年际时间尺度上。通过创建新的基础设施，特别是用于长期预测的 11 个全球生产中心 (GPC)，以及定义预测输出和相关材料的操作标准，实现了协调。讨论的例子表明，向全球气候界提供长期预报产品的集成、实用性和业务交付方面都有所改进。产品得到广泛使用，涵盖最多 6 个月的预测信息以及表明预测质量的验证信息。讨论了未来扩大 GPC 作用的建议，以应对全球气候服务框架发展带来的挑战。特别是，建议实施由 WMO 协调的定期全球季节性气候更新，以便就全球气候状况和下一季节的前景提供权威且易于获取的建议。此外，我们认为，相对于未初始化的（IPCC类型）预测，以观测到的气候状态初始化的十年范围预测所提供的技能优势足以通过扩展那些正在开发十年预测能力的GPC的作用，在多年到十年预测中开始类似的国际协调。
We describe the progress in the international coordination of long-range forecasting fos- tered by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), specifically for the seasonal to interannual timescale. Coordination has been achieved through the creation of new infrastructure, notably 11 Global Producing Centres (GPCs) for long-range forecasts, and definition of operational standards in forecast output and associated material. Examples discussed show improvements to the integration, usefulness and operational delivery of long-range forecast products to the world-wide climate com- munity. Products are in wide use, and cover both predictive information, up to 6 mo ahead, and ver- ification information indicating forecast quality. Proposals for future expansions of the role of GPCs are discussed, with a view to addressing the challenges presented by the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services. In particular, implementation of regular WMO-coordinated Global Seasonal Climate Updates is proposed, to provide authoritative, readily accessible advice on the state of the global climate and prospects for the next season. In addition we argue that the skill benefits provided by decadal-range predictions initialised with the observed climate state, relative to unini- tialised (IPCC-type) predictions, are sufficient to begin similar international coordination in multi- annual-to-decadal prediction, through extending the role of those GPCs that are developing decadal- prediction capability.