Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries
Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries
复制标题
将生物多样性模型与 25 个欧盟国家的政治和经济发展情景相结合
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.04.009
复制
发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
R. Reijnen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Verboom;R. Alkemade;J. Klijn;M. Metzger;R. Reijnen
在EURURALIS项目中，使用了一系列模型来预测欧洲人类福祉、生态和经济问题的可持续发展指标的变化，以及未来社会经济发展的四种备选方案。本文描述了该项目的生物多样性分析。基于环境因素与生物多样性丧失之间一般关系的模型与社会经济、土地利用和环境模型相结合，得出数据，并将其纳入决策者的互动工具。生物多样性分析考虑了土地利用变化、气候变化、主要道路破碎化、未破碎斑块面积、氮沉降、林业和干扰等因素的影响。结果表明，在所有情景下，从现在到2030年，大多数国家的生物多样性预计会减少，这表明欧盟不太可能实现到2010年阻止生物多样性丧失的承诺。这主要是由于城市化和压力因素的增加，超过了土地撂荒导致的自然面积增加。讨论了生物多样性评价方法的优点、局限性和不确定性。
In the EURURALIS project, a chain of models was used to predict the changes in sustainable development indicators for European human well-being, ecology and economy issues, for four alternative scenarios of the future socio-economic development. This paper describes the biodiversity analysis of the project. Models based on general relationships between environmental factors and biodiversity loss were combined with socio-economic, land-use and environmental models to derive data that were integrated into an interactive tool for policy makers. The biodiversity analysis takes into account the effects of land-use change, climate change, fragmentation by major roads, area of unfragmented patches, nitrogen deposition, forestry and disturbance. Results show that biodiversity is projected to decrease between now and 2030 in most countries for all scenarios, indicating that it is unlikely that the EU will be able to fulfill its commitment to stop biodiversity loss by 2010. This is mainly due to urbanization and increase in stress factors, and outweighs the area increase of nature arising from land abandonment. Merits, limitations and uncertainties of this approach to biodiversity assessment are discussed.