Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic climate change
Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1023/a:1015750019028
复制
发表时间：
2002-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Schaeffer, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Den Elzen, M;Schaeffer, M
在《京都议定书》谈判期间，巴西提出了一种方法，将附件一缔约方对减排的相对贡献与缔约方对全球平均气温上升的相对贡献联系起来。该提案在谈判期间未获通过，但将其提交附属科学和技术咨询机构审议其方法学方面。在此背景下，我们分析了模式不确定性和方法选择对区域全球平均气温升高的影响。已经开发了一个气候评估模型，以计算可归因于各个区域的温室气体浓度、全球平均温度和海平面上升的变化。分析表明，在方法方面的不同选择的影响与模式不确定性对一个区域目前和未来全球气温上升的影响同等重要。选择可以包括人为的非二氧化碳温室气体排放和/或与土地利用变化相关的二氧化碳排放。当全球气温变化的责任归结于所有排放缔约方时，建模不确定性和方法选择对个别缔约方贡献的影响是相当大的。但是，如果只在附件一国家组内计算相对缴款，则结果对此处所考虑的不确定性方面不那么敏感。
During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed a methodology to link the relative contribution of Annex I Parties to emission reductions with the relative contributions of Parties to the global-mean temperature increase. The proposal was not adopted during the negotiations but referred to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice for consideration of its methodological aspects. In this context we analyze the impact of model uncertainties and methodological choices on the regionally attributed global-mean temperature increase. A climate assessment model has been developed to calculate changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, global-mean temperature and sea-level rise attributable to individual regions. The analysis shows the impact of the different choices in methodological aspects to be as important as the impact of model uncertainties on a region's contribution to present and future global temperature increases. Choices may be the inclusion of the anthropogenic non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and/or the CO2 emissions associated with land-use changes. When responsibility to global temperature change is attributed to all emitting Parties, the impacts of modeling uncertainties and methodological choices on contributions of individual Parties are considerable. However, if relative contributions are calculated only within the group of Annex I countries, the results are less sensitive to the uncertainty aspects considered here.