Decarbonizing the global energy system
Decarbonizing the global energy system
复制标题
全球能源系统脱碳
DOI：
10.1016/0040-1625(96)00049-2
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
N. Nakicenovic
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Grubler;N. Nakicenovic
该研究分析了全球能源系统的长期脱碳，即，降低单位一次能源的碳排放量。脱碳似乎是一个持续和持久的趋势在世界各地，虽然发生在非常缓慢的速度约0.3%，每年。该研究还讨论了能源系统相关结构变化的驱动力，如技术变革。脱碳也发生在能源终端使用的水平和趋势的最终能源显示。消费者对能源服务的灵活性、便利性和清洁性的追求导致了终端能源的脱碳趋势，这一趋势比上游能源部门更为明显。该研究最后讨论了能源-环境相互作用的长期情景的影响，表明脱碳及其驱动力可能仍然没有被大多数能源系统长期演变的模型和情景充分捕获。
The study analyzes the long-term decarbonization of the global energy system, i.e., the decrease of the carbon emissions per unit of primary energy. Decarbonization appears as a continuous and persistent trend throughout the world, albeit occurring at very slow rates of approximately 0.3% per year. The study also discusses driving forces of the associated structural changes in energy systems such as technological change. Decarbonization also occurs at the level of energy end use and trends for final energy are shown. The quest for higher flexibility, convenience, and cleanliness of energy services demanded by consumers leads to decarbonization trends in final energy that are more pronounced that those of the upstream energy sector. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications for long-term scenarios of energy-environment interactions suggesting that decarbonization and its driving forces may still be insufficiently captured by most models and scenarios of the long-term evolution of the energy system.