Priming Issues, Party Visibility, and Party Evaluations: The Impact on Vote Switching
Priming Issues, Party Visibility, and Party Evaluations: The Impact on Vote Switching
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DOI：
10.1080/10584609.2016.1201179
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
7.5
通讯作者：
Bos, Linda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Geers, Sabine;Bos, Linda
在过去的三十年里，选民的不稳定性已经成为西方民主国家的一个标志。与此同时，媒体在选举过程中对问题、政党和候选人的报道等短期因素对选民的决定变得更加重要。虽然以前的研究确实研究了竞选新闻一般如何影响选举波动，但它忽略了明确测试这些影响背后的机制。基于议程设置、情感启动和议题所有权理论，本研究旨在解释为什么某些新闻方面会导致选民改变他们的投票选择。我们的理论是，一个政党的知名度，一个政党的评价，以及对一个政党所拥有的问题的关注，促使选民转向某个政党。我们使用全国小组调查数据（N=765），并将其与2012年荷兰全国大选前电视和报纸上的竞选新闻的广泛内容分析联系起来。研究结果表明，议题新闻会导致拥有议题的政党的投票方向发生变化。政党知名度对选票转换的影响更大。然而，我们的研究结果发现，政党评价对选票变化的影响得到了最有力的支持：关于一个政党的更多有利消息会增加转向该政党的人数。
Voter volatility has become a hallmark of Western democracies in the past three decades. At the same time short-term factorssuch as the media's coverage of issues, parties, and candidates during an election campaignhave become more important for voters' decisions. While previous research did look at how campaign news in general affects electoral volatility in general, it has omitted to explicitly test the mechanisms underlying these effects. Building on theories of agenda setting, (affective) priming, and issue ownership, the current study aims to explain why certain news aspects lead voters to switch their vote choice. We theorize it is the visibility of a party, the evaluation of a party, and the attention for issues owned by a party that primes voters to switch to a certain party. We use national panel survey data (N=765) and link this to an extensive content analysis of campaign news on television and in newspapers in the run up to the 2012 Dutch national elections. The results show that issue news leads to vote change in the direction of the party that owns the issue. Even stronger is the effect of party visibility on vote switching. Our results, however, find the strongest support for the effect of party evaluations on vote change: More favorable news about a party increases switching to that party.