Socio-demographic factors and the dengue fever epidemic in 2002 in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Socio-demographic factors and the dengue fever epidemic in 2002 in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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DOI：
10.1590/s0102-311x2008000900022
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Medronho, Roberto de Andrade
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Teixeira, Tatiana Rodrigues de Araujo;Medronho, Roberto de Andrade
本研究利用空间分析和统计模型分析了2002年巴西巴西里约热内卢州登革热流行和社会人口背景。计算了2002年该州居民登革热病例的发病率。该研究利用Moran全球指数分析了发病率与社会人口变量和空间自相关的关系，结果和自变量都显示出空间依赖性。采用多元线性回归模型。城市人口比例、有自来水的人口比例和家庭保健方案（FHP）的覆盖率这三个变量解释了该流行病发病率总差异的30.2%。模型残差不表现空间自相关。这些关联正朝着预期的方向发展，其他研究也证实了这一发现，这些研究表明，在城市化进程加快、自来水和供水不足的地区，登革热发病率较高，同时强调了FHP是病媒控制战略的重要促进因素。
This study analyzed the dengue fever epidemic in 2002 and the socio-demographic context of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, using spatial analysis and statistical modeling. The incidence rate was calculated for resident dengue cases in the State in 2002. The study analyzed associations between incidence and socio-demographic variables and spatial autocorrelation using the Moran Global Index, which showed spatial dependence for both the outcome and the independent variables. A multivariate linear regression model was used. The variables' proportion of urban population, percentage of the population with running water, and percentage of coverage by the Family Health Program (FHP) explained 30.2% of the total variance in the epidemic's incidence rate. The model's residuals did not show spatial autocorrelation. The associations were in the expected direction, and the findings are corroborated by other studies that showed higher dengue incidence in areas characterized by growing urbanization and deficient running water and water supply, while highlighting the FHP as an important facilitator of vector control strategies.