Quantifying and comparing the predictive accuracy of continuous prognostic factors for binary outcomes
Quantifying and comparing the predictive accuracy of continuous prognostic factors for binary outcomes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/biostatistics/5.1.113
复制
发表时间：
2004-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Pepe, MS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moskowitz, CS;Pepe, MS
当结果和预测因素都是二元时，正预测值和负预测值是量化预测准确性的标准方法。先前已经讨论了比较两个或更多二元因素的预测值的方法(Leisenring等人，2000，Biometrics 56,345-351)。我们建议扩展预测值的标准定义，以适应在连续尺度上测量的预后因素，并建议采用相应的图形方法来总结预测准确性。借鉴了Leisenring等人的工作。我们利用一个边际回归框架，讨论了估计这些预测值函数的方法及其在该框架内的差异。本文提出的方法有可能在许多领域有用，包括临床试验设计和卫生政策分析。
The positive and negative predictive values are standard ways of quantifying predictive accuracy when both the outcome and the prognostic factor are binary. Methods for comparing the predictive values of two or more binary factors have been discussed previously (Leisenring et al., 2000, Biometrics 56, 345-351). We propose extending the standard definitions of the predictive values to accommodate prognostic factors that are measured on a continuous scale and suggest a corresponding graphical method to summarize predictive accuracy. Drawing on the work of Leisenring et al. we make use of a marginal regression framework and discuss methods for estimating these predictive value functions and their differences within this framework. The methods presented in this paper have the potential to be useful in a number of areas including the design of clinical trials and health policy analysis.