The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
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发表时间：
2016-09-28
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Sanderson, Benjamin M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O'Neill, Brian C.;Tebaldi, Claudia;Sanderson, Benjamin M.
对未来气候变化的预估在提高对气候系统的认识以及描述社会风险和应对方案方面发挥着重要作用。情景模式比对项目（ScenarioMIP）是耦合模式比对项目（CMIP6）第6阶段的主要活动，该项目将根据综合评估模型产生的未来排放和土地利用变化的备选情景提供多模式气候预测。在本文中，我们描述了场景ip的目标、实验设计及其与CMIP6中其他活动的关系。情景ip设计是一个更大的情景过程的一个组成部分，该过程旨在促进在气候科学、综合评估建模以及影响、适应和脆弱性社区进行广泛的综合研究，并将成为即将到来的政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）评估的证据基础的重要组成部分。同时，它将为调查若干与基于情景的分析特别相关的有针对性的科学和政策问题提供基础，这些问题包括土地利用和气溶胶等特定强迫的作用、强迫达到峰值和减弱的影响、将升温限制在2摄氏度以下情景的后果、各种情景、气候模式和内部变率对不确定性的相对贡献。以及21世纪以后气候系统的长期结果。为了服务于这些广泛的科学界并解决这些问题，我们确定了一个设计方案，包括8个21世纪的备选方案，加上一个大型初始条件集合和一组长期扩展，按相对优先级划分为两层。其中一些情景还将为计划在其他cmip6认可的MIPs中运行的变体提供基础，以调查与特定强迫有关的问题。综合评估模型生成的统一的、空间明确的排放和土地利用情景将在2016年底前提供给参与的气候模拟小组，气候模式模拟将在2017-2018年时间段内运行，气候模式预估的输出将在2018-2020年期间进行分析。
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 degrees C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017-2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018-2020 period.