TRENDS IN BREAST-CANCER MORTALITY AMONG SWEDISH WOMEN 1953-92 - ANALYSES BY AGE, PERIOD AND BIRTH COHORT
TRENDS IN BREAST-CANCER MORTALITY AMONG SWEDISH WOMEN 1953-92 - ANALYSES BY AGE, PERIOD AND BIRTH COHORT
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DOI：
10.1038/bjc.1995.361
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发表时间：
1995-08-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
BERGSTROM, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BORNEFALK, A;PERSSON, I;BERGSTROM, R
根据1953 - 1992年期间瑞典30 - 89岁妇女的所有51048例死亡，探讨了瑞典妇女乳腺癌死亡率的趋势。在观察期间，年龄标准化死亡率几乎没有变化（平均每10万女性每年有32例死亡），年龄特异性死亡率也是如此。在年龄-时期-队列分析中，年龄本身解释了几乎所有的比率变化。阶段和队列的影响具有统计学显著性，但非常温和。队列效应似乎比周期效应更能解释问题，而且从1883 - 1892年出生的女性开始出现了微弱的下降趋势。1981年改变了根据死亡证明对死亡原因进行分类的政策，似乎人为地降低了75岁以上妇女的死亡率。它的结论是，在瑞典的乳腺癌死亡率在过去的40年中一直非常稳定，尽管在发病率的大幅和不断增加。死亡率和发病率之间的这种差异反映了生存率的提高，这可以部分解释为早期检测和更有效的治疗，或侵袭性较低的肿瘤的发生率增加。
Trends in breast cancer mortality among Swedish women were explored on the basis of all 51 048 deaths in women 30-89 years of age in Sweden during the period 1953-92. The age-standardised mortality rates were virtually unchanged during the observation period (with a mean of 32 deaths per 100 000 females and year), as were age-specific rates. In age-period-cohort analyses, age alone explained almost all of the variation in the rates. The effects of period and cohort were statistically significant, but very modest. Cohort effects seemed to explain more than period effects, and a weak downward trend starting with women born in 1883-92 was noted. A change in 1981 in the policy to classify the causes of death from the death certificates seemed to entail an artificial lowering of the mortality rates in women older than 75 years. It is concluded that breast cancer mortality in Sweden during the last 40 years has been remarkably stable, in spite of a substantial and constant increase in the incidence. This divergence between mortality and incidence reflects improved survival, which could in part be explained by earlier detection and more efficient treatment, or by an increasing occurrence of less aggressive tumours.