Software reliability models: an approach to early reliability prediction
Software reliability models: an approach to early reliability prediction
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软件可靠性模型：早期可靠性预测的方法
DOI：
10.1109/issre.1996.558733
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Stutzke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carol S. Smidts;R. Stoddard;M. Stutzke
软件可靠性预测模型是至关重要的，因为它们提供了成本超支、软件开发过程问题、最优开发策略等的早期识别。现有的预测模型大多是在过去的5到10年里发展起来的，因此已经过时了。此外，它们不是基于对软件开发过程的深入了解和理解。这限制了它们的预测能力。本文提出了一种基于系统识别软件过程失效模式及其可能性的软件可靠性预测方法。该方法及其支持数据收集工作的直接结果是识别软件开发过程中的薄弱区域。推荐使用贝叶斯框架来量化软件过程故障模式概率，因为它允许使用仅部分与当前软件相关的历史数据。该方法应用于需求分析阶段。
Software reliability prediction models are of paramount importance since they provide early identification of cost overruns, software development process issues, optimal development strategies, etc. Existing prediction models were developed mostly during the past 5 to 10 years and, hence, have become obsolete. Furthermore, they are not based on a deep knowledge and understanding of the software development process. This limits their predictive power. This paper presents an approach to the prediction of software reliability based on a systematic identification of software process failure modes and their likelihoods. A direct consequence of the approach and its supporting data collection efforts is the identification of weak areas in the software development process. A Bayesian framework for the quantification of software process failure mode probabilities is recommended since it allows usage of historical data that are only partially relevant to the software at hand. The approach is applied to the requirements analysis phase.