Does poverty cause conflict? Isolating the causal origins of the conflict trap
Does poverty cause conflict? Isolating the causal origins of the conflict trap
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DOI：
10.1177/0738894214559673
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Hudson, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Braithwaite, Alex;Dasandi, Niheer;Hudson, David
贫困会导致国内冲突吗？相当多的文献试图回答这个问题，但对反向因果关系的担忧威胁到现有结论的有效性。为了估计贫困对冲突的影响并确定它们之间的关系是否具有因果关系，有必要确定贫困外生变化的来源。为此，我们引入了一种强有力的贫困指标：一种随时间变化的国际不平等衡量标准。我们借鉴了关于一个国家在国际经济网络中的结构地位的现有理论，特别是预期核心国家往往更富裕，而边缘国家则难以发展。这个工具似乎是外生的，满足排除限制，这表明它只通过对贫穷的影响来影响冲突。使用工具变量概率回归来证明贫穷对冲突的影响似乎是因果关系。
Does poverty cause civil conflict? A considerable literature seeks to answer this question, yet concerns about reverse causality threaten the validity of extant conclusions. To estimate the impact of poverty on conflict and to determine whether the relationship between them is causal, it is necessary to identify a source of exogenous variation in poverty. We do this by introducing a robust instrument for poverty: a time-varying measure of international inequalities. We draw upon existing theories about the structural position of a country in the international economic networkspecifically, the expectation that countries in the core tend to be wealthier and those on the periphery struggle to develop. This instrument is plausibly exogenous and satisfies the exclusion restriction, which suggests that it affects conflict only through its influence upon poverty. Instrumental variables probit regression is employed to demonstrate that the impact of poverty upon conflict appears to be causal.