The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will be increased in 40 years
The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will be increased in 40 years
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DOI：
10.1007/s12194-013-0220-7
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发表时间：
2013-07-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Ogasawara, Katsuhiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Araseki, Miwa;Yokooka, Yuki;Ogasawara, Katsuhiko
预测作为医疗资源的放射技术人员数量的长期供需至关重要。然而，由于复杂且相互交织的因素，很难预测日本放射技术人员的数量。我们这项研究的目的是利用系统动力学（SD）的概念来预测未来放射技术人员的数量，并阐明相关因素的影响。为了估计日本放射技术人员的数量，我们使用 SD 的概念构建了一个流程图。我们模拟了以下4种情况的放射技师人数：维持现状、国考通过率变化、研究生就业率变化、继续教育率变化。预测 20 年后放射技术人员人数为 50,509 人，比目前的人数增加 4,394 人（9.5%）；40 年后预计放射技术人员人数为 50,166 人，比目前的人数增加 4,051 人（8.8%）。在影响科技人员数量的因素中，国考通过率和研究生就业率的影响大于研究生继续教育率。日本放射技术人员的数量将在2033年之前增加，在2042年之前减少，如果维持现状，2042年后不会发生变化。实施 SD 概念使我们能够轻松阐明影响放射技术人员预测数量的因素。
It is essential to predict the long-term supply and demand for the number of radiologic technologists as medical resources. However, it is difficult to predict the number of Japanese radiologic technologists due to complex and intertwining factors. Our purpose in this study was to predict the future number of radiologic technologists using the concept of system dynamics (SD), and to clarify the effects of relevant factors. In order to estimate the number of Japanese radiologic technologists, we constructed a flow diagram using the concept of SD. We simulated the number of radiologic technologists for the following 4 cases: maintaining the status quo, a change in the pass rate for the national examination, a change in the post-graduate employment rate, and a change in the rate of continuing education. The result for the predicted number of radiologic technologists was 50,509 in 20 years, which is 4,394 (9.5 %) more than the present number, and 50,166 in 40 years, which is 4,051 (8.8 %) more than the present number. For the factors influencing the number of technologists, the influence of the pass rate on the national examination and that of the rate for post-graduate employment was larger than that of the rate of continuing education in graduate school. The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will increase until 2033 and decrease until 2042, and it does not change after 2042 in case of maintaining the status quo. Implementing the concept of SD allowed us easily to clarify the factors influencing the predicted number of radiologic technologists.