Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016
Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018
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发表时间：
2018-08-23
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Petley, David N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Froude, Melanie J.;Petley, David N.
山体滑坡是有斜坡的陆地环境中普遍存在的危险，会导致城市住区、沿着交通走廊和农村工业区的人员死亡。滑坡风险评估需要高质量的滑坡数据库。最近，全球滑坡数据库显示了滑坡对社会的影响程度，并确定了风险最高的地区。以前的全球分析集中在短至5年的观察期内由地震引发的山体滑坡。本文对2004年1月至2016年12月期间全球致命非地震滑坡数据集进行了时空分析。数据显示，共有55997人在4862次不同的山体滑坡事件中丧生。滑坡的空间分布是不均匀的，亚洲是主要的地理区域。山体滑坡的发生具有高度的年际变化。虽然更活跃的年份与气候异常驱动的区域降雨模式相吻合，但气候模式（如厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）还不能与滑坡相关，需要30多年的滑坡数据集。我们的分析表明，由人类活动引发的滑坡事件正在增加，特别是与建筑，非法采矿和削山有关。这支持了人类干扰可能比气候对未来山体滑坡发生率更有害的观点。
Landslides are a ubiquitous hazard in terrestrial environments with slopes, incurring human fatalities in urban settlements, along transport corridors and at sites of rural industry. Assessment of landslide risk requires high-quality landslide databases. Recently, global landslide databases have shown the extent to which landslides impact on society and identified areas most at risk. Previous global analysis has focused on rainfall-triggered landslides over short similar to 5-year observation periods. This paper presents spatiotemporal analysis of a global dataset of fatal non-seismic landslides, covering the period from January 2004 to December 2016. The data show that in total 55 997 people were killed in 4862 distinct landslide events. The spatial distribution of landslides is heterogeneous, with Asia representing the dominant geographical area. There are high levels of interannual variation in the occurrence of landslides. Although more active years coincide with recognised patterns of regional rainfall driven by climate anomalies, climate modes (such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation) cannot yet be related to landsliding, requiring a landslide dataset of 30+ years. Our analysis demonstrates that landslide occurrence triggered by human activity is increasing, in particular in relation to construction, illegal mining and hill cutting. This supports notions that human disturbance may be more detrimental to future landslide incidence than climate.