Poverty trap formed by the ecology of infectious diseases
Poverty trap formed by the ecology of infectious diseases
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2009.1778
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发表时间：
2010-04-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Sachs, Jeffrey D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonds, Matthew H.;Keenan, Donald C.;Sachs, Jeffrey D.
尽管世界上大部分地区都经历了指数级的经济增长，但如今世界上六分之一以上的人口大致与他们的祖先几代人以前一样贫穷。对这种贫困持续存在的广泛接受的一般性解释一直难以捉摸，国际发展界需要这种解释。基于人类传染病的成熟模型，我们展示了简单的经济和疾病生态模型的正式整合如何自然地导致贫困陷阱，其中初始经济和流行病学条件决定了社会健康和经济发展的长期轨迹。因此，可以通过改善人口的健康状况来打破这种贫困陷阱。更一般地说，我们证明简单的人类生态模型可以帮助解释现代经济组织的广泛模式。
While most of the world has enjoyed exponential economic growth, more than one-sixth of the world is today roughly as poor as their ancestors were many generations ago. Widely accepted general explanations for the persistence of such poverty have been elusive and are needed by the international development community. Building on a well-established model of human infectious diseases, we show how formally integrating simple economic and disease ecology models can naturally give rise to poverty traps, where initial economic and epidemiological conditions determine the long-term trajectory of the health and economic development of a society. This poverty trap may therefore be broken by improving health conditions of the population. More generally, we demonstrate that simple human ecological models can help explain broad patterns of modern economic organization.