Changing climate shifts timing of European floods
Changing climate shifts timing of European floods
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aan2506
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发表时间：
2017-08-11
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Zivkovic, Nenad
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bloeschl, Guenter;Hall, Julia;Zivkovic, Nenad
气候变暖预计会对河流洪水的规模和时间产生影响;然而，迄今为止，在观测到的洪水规模中，还没有发现一致的大规模气候变化信号。我们分析了过去50年来欧洲河流洪水的时间，使用来自4262个观测水文站的泛欧数据库，并发现了洪水时间变化的明确模式。气温升高导致整个东北欧的春季融雪洪水提前;与极地变暖有关的冬季风暴推迟导致北海和地中海沿岸一些地区的冬季洪水推迟;土壤湿度最大值提前导致西欧冬季洪水提前。我们的研究结果强调了在大陆尺度洪水观测中存在明确的气候信号。
A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.