Assessing the current and future potential geographic distribution of the American dog tick,Dermacentor variabilis(Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America
Assessing the current and future potential geographic distribution of the American dog tick,Dermacentor variabilis(Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0237191
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发表时间：
2020-08-10
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Raghavan, Ram K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boorgula, Gunavanthi D. Y.;Peterson, A. Townsend;Raghavan, Ram K.
美国狗蜱，变异皮蜱，是一种兽医和医学上重要的蜱类，已知会向动物和人类宿主传播几种疾病。然而，这个物种在北美的空间分布还不是很清楚；而且，为了进行适当的公共卫生规划和信息传递，需要了解由于持续的气候变化而可能对其未来地理分布造成的变化。最近的两项研究评估了这些主题的可变性；然而，在这些研究中，不那么严格的建模方法可能会导致错误的预测。我们使用相关最大熵方法，利用公开可用的发生信息，评估了该物种的现在和未来分布。在两种具有代表性的浓度路径（RCP）情景下预测了未来的电位分布；低排放为RCP 4.5，高排放为RCP 8.5。研究结果表明，在两种气候变化情景下，该物种在各方向的分布范围比目前已知的范围更广，适宜区向西和向北扩展的潜力巨大。对疾病生态学和公共卫生的影响进行了讨论。
The American dog tick,Dermacentor variabilis, is a veterinary- and medically- significant tick species that is known to transmit several diseases to animal and human hosts. The spatial distribution of this species in North America is not well understood, however; and knowledge of likely changes to its future geographic distribution owing to ongoing climate change is needed for proper public health planning and messaging. Two recent studies have evaluated these topics forD.variabilis; however, less-rigorous modeling approaches in those studies may have led to erroneous predictions. We evaluated the present and future distribution of this species using a correlative maximum entropy approach, using publicly available occurrence information. Future potential distributions were predicted under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios; RCP 4.5 for low-emissions and RCP 8.5 for high-emissions. Our results indicated a broader current distribution of this species in all directions relative to its currently known extent, and dramatic potential for westward and northward expansion of suitable areas under both climate change scenarios. Implications for disease ecology and public health are discussed.