Disseminating a warning message to evacuate: A simulation study of the behaviour of neighbours
Disseminating a warning message to evacuate: A simulation study of the behaviour of neighbours
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2012.02.026
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Albores, Pavel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nagarajan, Magesh;Shaw, Duncan;Albores, Pavel
大规模疏散是新闻频道反复出现的主题，无论是为了应对重大自然灾害还是人为灾难。警报传播的作用是这种大规模疏散成功的关键部分，在某些情况下，它的不足是“造成死亡和受伤的主要原因”(Hayden等人，2007年)。事实证明，与技术驱动的“官方警报渠道”(如警报器、大众媒体)一样，非官方渠道(如邻居、个人联系人、志愿者监督员)在警告公众疏散的必要性方面也发挥了重要作用。虽然疏散后的研究确定疏散人员的行为是警告信息的传播者，但还没有一项详细的研究来量化这种行为对警告信息传播的影响。本文建立了一个虚拟社区中多个主体(疏散家庭)的基于主体的模拟(ABS)模型，以考察作为非官方渠道的行为对整体预警传播的影响。研究的参数包括警告邻居的人的百分比，不同官方警告渠道的效率，以及警告邻居的延迟时间。即使愿意警告邻居的人比例很低，结果也显示出对整体警告传播的相当大影响。(C)2012爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Large-scale evacuations are a recurring theme on news channels, whether in response to major natural or manmade disasters. The role of warning dissemination is a key part in the success of such large-scale evacuations and its inadequacy in certain cases has been a 'primary contribution to deaths and injuries' (Hayden et al., 2007). Along with technology-driven 'official warning channels' (e.g. sirens, mass media), the role of unofficial channel (e.g. neighbours, personal contacts, volunteer wardens) has proven to be significant in warning the public of the need to evacuate. Although post-evacuation studies identify the behaviours of evacuees as disseminators of the warning message, there has not been a detailed study that quantifies the effects of such behaviour on the warning message dissemination. This paper develops an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) model of multiple agents (evacuee households) in a hypothetical community to investigate the impact of behaviour as an unofficial channel on the overall warning dissemination. Parameters studied include the percentage of people who warn their neighbours, the efficiency of different official warning channels, and delay time to warn neighbours. Even with a low proportion of people willing to warn their neighbour, the results showed considerable impact on the overall warning dissemination. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.