The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes
The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-015-1561-5
复制
发表时间：
2016-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Prokopy, Linda S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carlton, J. Stuart;Mase, Amber S.;Prokopy, Linda S.
极端天气事件在塑造人们的气候变化信念和适应态度方面的作用已在学术文献、大众媒体和政策界进行了广泛的研究和讨论。在这篇手稿中，我们通过使用极端事件前后调查的数据来研究2012年美国中西部干旱对农业顾问的气候变化信念、适应态度和风险认知的影响，从而为这场辩论做出贡献。我们发现，气候变化的信念和对适应的态度都没有因为干旱而发生显著变化。然而，风险认知确实发生了变化，顾问们变得更担心干旱和虫害的风险，而不那么担心与洪水和积水相关的风险。尽管风险认知的增加与更有利的适应态度显著相关，但影响还不够大，不足以导致对适应态度的整体转变。结果表明，极端气候事件可能不会导致气候观念的重大转变，至少不会立即改变。此外，研究结果还警告称，依赖不断增强的风险感知来推动应对气候变化行动的政策设计，可能高估了极端事件对风险感受的影响，至少在美国大型商业性农业等缓冲系统的背景下是这样。
The role of extreme weather events in shaping people's climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes has been extensively studied and discussed in academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles. In this manuscript, we contribute to the debate by using data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors' climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Though increased risk perceptions were significantly associated with more favorable adaptation attitudes, the effects were not large enough to cause an overall shift to more favorable attitudes toward adaptation. The results suggest that extreme climate events might not cause significant shifts in climate beliefs, at least not immediately. Additionally, the results caution that policy designs that rely on increasing risk perceptions to motivate action on climate change may be overestimating the effects of extreme events on feeling at risk, at least in the context of buffered systems such as large commercial agriculture in the US.