Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
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DOI：
10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5412
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
Nico Wunderling;J. Donges;J. Kurths;R. Winkelmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nico Wunderling;J. Donges;J. Kurths;R. Winkelmann
抽象的。随着全球变暖的加剧，气候系统中的一个或多个临界因素可能跨越临界阈值的风险越来越大，从而对全球气候、生态系统和人类社会造成严重后果。尽管人们对基本过程已相当了解，但尚不清楚它们的相互作用如何影响地球气候系统的整体稳定性。到目前为止，由于计算限制以及某些倾翻元素的一些缺失和不确定的过程表示，还无法使用最先进的地球系统模型对此进行充分分析。在这里，我们使用概念网络方法明确研究了格陵兰岛和南极洲西部冰盖、大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）和亚马逊雨林之间已知物理相互作用的影响。我们分析了平衡实验中全球变暖情况下每个单独的倾倒因素引发多米诺骨牌效应的风险。在这些实验中，我们通过蒙特卡罗方法的大型模拟集合来传播临界温度阈值、相互作用强度和相互作用结构的不确定性。总的来说，我们发现相互作用往往会破坏倾倒元素网络的稳定性。此外，我们的分析揭示了网络中四个倾翻要素中每一个的定性作用，表明格陵兰岛和南极洲西部的极地冰盖通常是倾翻级联的引发者，而 AMOC 充当传递级联的中介者。这表明冰盖已经面临超出巴黎1.5至2℃范围内温度阈值的风险，对于整个气候系统的稳定性特别重要。
Abstract. With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analysed with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process representations of certain tipping elements. Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions among the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments, we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds, interaction strengths and interaction structure via large ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach. Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network of tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 ∘C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole.