Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change
Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Klein, Stephen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hall, Alex;Cox, Peter;Klein, Stephen
近年来，出现了一种针对地球系统模型（ESM）的评估技术——紧急约束（EC）——它依赖于整个 ESM 整体中当前气候和未来变化之间的强大统计关系。将 EC 关系与观测结果结合起来可以减少未来变化的不确定性。在这里，我们阐明了一个评估 EC 的框架，并提供了指标，使拟议的 EC 可以从强大的统计关系转变为确认。主要指标是经过验证的机制和样本外测试。已确认的 EC 有潜力通过将注意力集中在与气候预测最相关的变量上来改善 ESM。展望未来，可能存在未被发现的极端事件和遥相关的 EC，而 EC 可能有助于确定气候系统的临界点。
In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen-emergent constraints (ECs)-which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points.