Incorporating human behaviour in simulation models of screening for breast cancer
Incorporating human behaviour in simulation models of screening for breast cancer
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.041
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发表时间：
2012-06-16
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Sykes, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brailsford, S. C.;Harper, P. R.;Sykes, J.
仿真建模广泛应用于许多行业，以评估替代方案并测试过于复杂而无法进行分析建模的策略或操作规则。自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，仿真软件的功能随着计算能力的增长而发展。然而在实践中，最复杂的模拟模型的结果可能无法真实反映现实世界中发生的情况，因为此类模型没有考虑人类行为。例如，在医疗保健领域，模拟通常用于评估新药治疗等医疗干预的结果。然而实际上，患者可能无法完成处方药物的疗程，可能是因为他们发现副作用令人不快。旨在评估这种药物的模拟研究忽略了此类行为因素可能会得出不可靠的结果。在本文中，我们描述了一种乳腺癌筛查模型，其中包括行为因素来模拟女性参加乳房X光检查的决定。模型结果表明，通过教育或宣传活动提高出勤率与减少屏幕之间的间隔同样有效。这将对医疗保健提供者产生相当大的成本影响。 (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Simulation modelling is widely used in many industries in order to assess and evaluate alternative options and to test strategies or operating rules which are too complex to be modelled analytically. Simulation software has developed its capability in parallel with the growth in computing power since the 1980s. However in practice, the results from the most sophisticated and complex simulation model may not truly reflect what happens in the real world, because such models do not account for human behaviour. For example, in the domain of healthcare simulation is often used to evaluate the outcomes from medical interventions such as new drug treatments. However in reality patients may not complete the course of a prescribed medication, perhaps because they find the side-effects unpleasant. A simulation study designed to evaluate this medication which ignores such behavioural factors may give unreliable results. In this paper we describe a model for screening for breast cancer which includes behavioural factors to model women's decisions to attend for mammography. The model results indicate that increasing attendance through education or publicity campaigns can be equally as effective as decreasing the intervals between screens. This would have considerable cost implications for healthcare providers. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.