Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model
Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268806007783
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发表时间：
2007-10-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Leach, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hall, I. M.;Egan, J. R.;Leach, S.
为了确定以区域针对性疫苗接种作为其他天花控制策略的辅助的潜在益处，我们采用了基于大不列颠行政区的空间跨种群贴片模型。我们计算了由于天花而导致的死亡和疫苗接种，以确定最大程度地减少总死亡的策略。结果证实了案例隔离以及案例接触的追踪，疫苗接种和观察可以是控制最佳的，但仅用于关于天花（R-O = 3）的基本繁殖数（R-O = 3）的乐观假设和较小的索引案例（相似的索引案例）到10）。对于更广泛的方案，包括大量的索引案例和更高的繁殖数字，仅针对受感染地区的大规模疫苗接种提供了可观的益处（死亡人数减少了5-80％ 1-10个地区内的有症状的人）。
To determine the potential benefits of regionally targeted mass vaccination as an adjunct to other smallpox control strategies we employed a spatial metapopulation patch model based on the administrative districts of Great Britain. We counted deaths due to smallpox and to vaccination to identify strategies that minimized total deaths. Results confirm that case isolation, and the tracing, vaccination and observation of case contacts can be optimal for control but only for optimistic assumptions concerning, for example, the basic reproduction number for smallpox (R-o = 3) and smaller numbers of index cases (similar to 10). For a wider range of scenarios, including larger numbers of index cases and higher reproduction numbers, the addition of mass vaccination targeted only to infected districts provided an appreciable benefit (5-80% fewer deaths depending on where the outbreak started with a trigger value of 1-10 isolated symptomatic individuals within a district).