Space—time correlations between inland earthquakes in central Japan and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough: Implication for destructive earthquake prediction
Space—time correlations between inland earthquakes in central Japan and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough: Implication for destructive earthquake prediction
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日本中部内陆地震与南海海槽沿岸大地震之间的时空相关性：对破坏性地震预测的启示
DOI：
10.1016/0013-7952(93)90031-7
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发表时间：
1993
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
K. Yairi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Kanaori;S. Kawakami;K. Yairi
根据日本中部包括周围海底地区的构造格架，研究了6.4级以上内陆破坏性地震与南海海槽沿着近海大地震之间的时空关系。从东到西，四条构造线被定义为连接活动断层的线：Itoigawa-Shizuoka构造线（ISTL），Tsurugawan-Isewan构造线（TITL），Hanaore-Kongo断层线（HKFL）和Arima-Takatsuki构造线（ATTL）。TITL将日本中部分为中部和近畿地区，并可能向南延伸到南海海槽。中部地区以北西-南东向左行走滑活动断裂为界，划分为四个区块。在近畿地区，在中央构造线以北的三角区域，在TITL和HKFL之间，南北走向的活动反向陡倾断层占主导地位，形成盆山省。从公元1586年开始，确定了中部地区高地震活动的地震时空序列，其中地震发生从日本中部的东向西构造线迁移。该序列还揭示了内陆地震先于沿着南海海槽发生的近海大地震。研究还发现，在台后30年内，香港FL有发生破坏性地震的趋势，南海西部海槽在香港FL地震后8 ~ 49年内发生了M ≥ 7.0的大地震。如果南海海槽东部与西部耦合，则可能发生8.5级以上的大地震。由于这种大地震往往伴随着大海啸，因此应特别注意日本中部太平洋沿着可能发生的海啸灾害。根据日本中部的构造构造，提出了日本中部的构造模式。本文还讨论了地震时空序列，它试图解释地震序列发生的原因。
Based on the tectonic framework of central Japan, including the surrounding submarine areas, the space-time relationship between destructive inland earthquakes of magnitudesM6.4 or greater and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough was examined. From east to west, four tectonic lines are defined as lines linking active faults: the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line (ISTL), the Tsurugawan-Isewan tectonic line (TITL), the Hanaore-Kongo fault line (HKFL), and the Arima-Takatsuki tectonic line (ATTL). The TITL divides central Japan into the Chubu and Kinki districts, and probably extends southward to the Nankai trough. The Chubu district is subdivided into four blocks by boundary lines linking NW-SE trending active faults having left-lateral strike slip. In the Kinki district, N-S trending, active reverse, steep-dip faults are dominant in the triangular region north of the Median Tectonic line, between the TITL and HKFL, forming a basin-and-range province.Starting from 1586 A.D., a seismic space-time sequence of high seismic activity in the Chubu district in which earthquake occurrence migrates from the eastern to western tectonic lines of central Japan was identified. The sequence also revealed that inland earthquakes preceded great offshore earthquakes which occurred along the Nankai trough. It was also found that a destructive earthquake tends to occur on the HKFL within 30 years after the occurrence on the TITL, and that the western Nankai trough generated great earthquakes ofM≥7.0at intervals ranging from 8 to 49 years after the HKFL earthquakes. If the eastern Nankai trough is coupled with the western Nankai trough, a forthcoming greater earthquake measuringM8.5 may be expected. Since such great earthquakes are always accompanied by large tsunamis, much attention should be focussed on possible tsunami disasters along the Pacific coast of central Japan.Based on its tectonic structure, a tectonic model of central Japan is proposed. The seismic space-time sequence, which attempts to explain the cause of the sequential earthquake generation, is also discussed.