Decomposition of Japan's Trade Balance
Decomposition of Japan's Trade Balance
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日本贸易平衡的分解
DOI：
10.1016/j.iref.2017.12.007
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Yushi Yoshida
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yuri Sasaki;Yushi Yoshida
受全球金融危机和大地震海啸的打击，日本的贸易平衡已经转为赤字，结束了26年的贸易顺差。然而，令人不解的是，即使在2012年底日元大幅贬值期间，日本的贸易收支也长期处于逆差状态。作为本研究的贡献，我们提供了1988年至2014年期间日本出口和进口在国家和行业层面分解的价格和数量指数。收入弹性、价格弹性和传递弹性是在国家和行业分类水平上估计的。估算结果支持日本贸易在收入和汇率传递弹性方面都经历了结构性变化。危机后，日本的出口对汇率波动的反应变得更加迟钝，而日本的进口价格随着日元贬值而更成比例地上涨，进口的收入弹性急剧上升。日本与世界其他国家的收入弹性差异令人想起Houthakker-Magee效应，表明日本的贸易平衡可能会恶化。日本贸易的分解显示，几乎所有要素都发生了变化，导致外部收支恶化。
Hit by the global financial crisis and a great earthquake followed by a tsunami, Japan's trade balance has turned to deficit, ending its 26 years of trade surplus. However, it is puzzling that Japan's trade balance has remained long in deficit even during the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen beginning at the end of 2012. As a contribution of this study, we provide consistently constructed indices for price and quantity, decomposed at the country and industry level for Japanese exports and imports between 1988 and 2014. Income elasticity, price elasticity, and pass-through elasticity are estimated at the country and industry disaggregated levels. The estimated results support that Japanese trade experienced a structural change both in income and exchange rate pass-through elasticity. After the crisis, Japanese exports became more unresponsive to exchange rate fluctuations, whereas Japanese import prices rose more proportionately with the depreciation of the Japanese yen, and income elasticity of imports rose sharply. The difference in income elasticity between Japan and the rest of world is reminiscent of the Houthakker-Magee effect and suggests that the trade balance of Japan is likely to deteriorate. The decomposition of Japanese trade revealed that almost every element shifted, resulting in the deterioration of the external balance.