On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN
On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN
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论东盟区域货币安排
DOI：
10.1006/jjie.2000.0446
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发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
P. Mauro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tamim A. Bayoumi;Barry Eichengreen;P. Mauro
本文分析了东盟适合区域货币安排的程度。在经济方面，我们回顾了贸易模式、经济冲击、要素流动程度和货币传导机制的证据。我们发现，今天的东盟不如马斯特里赫特条约之前的欧元区适合区域货币安排，但差异并不大。在政治方面，我们根据欧洲50年的经验来分析货币一体化的前提条件。我们的结论是，坚定的政治承诺将是确保形成区域货币安排的尝试不被视为简单的另一种容易受到投机攻击的固定汇率制度的关键。这一承诺必须足够强大，才能长期存在，并支持艰难的决定，例如使央行独立、坚持财政和汇率安排（即使政策立场与纯粹出于国内考虑而采取的政策立场相冲突）以及接受超国家指令。这些都是成功的非常重要的先决条件。
This paper analyses the extent to which ASEAN may be suitable for a regional monetary arrangement. On the economic front, we review evidence on patterns of trade, economic shocks, the extent of factor mobility, and the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that ASEAN today is less suitable for a regional monetary arrangement than the euro area was before the Maastricht Treaty, but the differences are not large. On the political front, we analyse the prerequisites for monetary integration in light of 50 years of European experience. We conclude that a firm political commitment would be the key to ensuring that an attempt to form a regional monetary arrangement is not viewed as simply another fixed exchange rate system open to speculative attack. That commitment would have to be strong enough to survive for an extended period and to support difficult decisions such as rendering the central bank independent, adhering to fiscal and exchange rate arrangements even if the policy stance conflicts with that which would be adopted on the basis of purely domestic considerations, and accepting supranational directives. These are very considerable prerequisites for success.