Non-inferiority trials using a surrogate marker as the primary endpoint: An increasing phenotype in cardiovascular trials.
Non-inferiority trials using a surrogate marker as the primary endpoint: An increasing phenotype in cardiovascular trials.
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DOI:
10.1177/1740774520949157
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发表时间:
2020-12
期刊:
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Krumholz HM
中科院分区:
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bikdeli B;Caraballo C;Welsh J;Ross JS;Kaul S;Stone GW;Krumholz HM
Non-inferiority trials are increasing in cardiovascular medicine, with approval of many drugs and devices on the basis of such studies. Surrogate markers as primary endpoints have been also more frequently used for efficient assessment of cardiovascular interventions. However, there is uncertainty about their concordance with clinical outcomes. Non-inferiority design using a surrogate marker as a primary endpoint may pose particular challenges in clinical interpretation. We sought to explore the publication trends, methodology and reporting features of non-inferiority cardiovascular trials that used a primary surrogate marker as the primary endpoint. We searched six high-impact journals (NEJM, JAMA, Lancet, JACC, Circulation, and EHJ) from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2018 and identified non-inferiority cardiovascular trials that used a surrogate marker as a primary endpoint. We assessed the non-inferiority margin reported in the manuscript and other publicly available platforms (e.g., protocol, clinicaltrials.gov). We also determined whether the included non-inferiority trials with surrogate markers as primary endpoints were followed by clinical outcome trials. We screened 15,553 publications and identified 247 cardiovascular trials that used a non-inferiority design. Of these, 37 had a surrogate marker as a primary endpoint (18 drug trials, 13 device trials, 6 others). All of these non-inferiority trials with surrogate outcomes were published after 2000, mostly in cardiology journals (13 in JACC, 9 in European Heart Journal, 8 in Circulation, 6 in Lancet, 1 in NEJM), and their publication rate increased over time (P<0.001 for linear trend). The median number of patients in the primary analysis was 300 (IQR: 202 – 465). The study protocol or a methods paper was publicly available for only 13 (35.1%) trials, of which the non-inferiority margin was not reported in 4. In 16 studies (43.2%) the manuscript did not acknowledge the limitations of using a surrogate endpoint, or the need for a definitive clinical outcome trial. Thirty-four trials (91.9%) concluded that the tested intervention met non-inferiority criteria. However, only 5 (13.5%) were followed by clinical outcomes trials the results of which did not always confirm non-inferiority. Non-inferiority trials that use a surrogate marker as a primary endpoint are being increasingly performed. However, these trials pose particular challenges with design, reporting and interpretation, which are not systematically and consistently addressed or reported.
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39.3
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