El Ni�o Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator
El Ni�o Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator
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DOI：
10.1126/science.264.5155.72
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发表时间：
1994-04
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
E. Tziperman;Lewi Stone;M. Cane;Hans Jarosh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Tziperman;Lewi Stone;M. Cane;Hans Jarosh
厄尔尼诺—南方涛动 (ENSO) 周期被建模为由季节周期驱动的低阶混沌过程。一个简单的模型表明，赤道太平洋海洋-大气振荡器可以随季节周期进入非线性共振，并且当海洋与大气之间的耦合足够强时，由于海洋-大气系统在不同非线性共振之间的不规则跳跃，系统可能变得混沌。 ENSO 预测模型的时间序列分析与低阶混沌机制一致。
The El Ni�o—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is modeled as a low-order chaotic process driven by the seasonal cycle. A simple model suggests that the equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator can go into nonlinear resonance with the seasonal cycle and that with strong enough coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, the system may become chaotic as a result of irregular jumping of the ocean-atmosphere system among different nonlinear resonances. An analysis of a time series from an ENSO prediction model is consistent with the low-order chaos mechanism.