A new method for assessing the risk of accident associated with darkness
A new method for assessing the risk of accident associated with darkness
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2009.04.003
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发表时间：
2009-07-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Elvik, Rune
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johansson, Osten;Wanvik, Per Ole;Elvik, Rune
本文提出了一种新的方法来评估与黑暗有关的事故风险。该方法根据比值比估计与黑暗相关的事故风险，其定义如下：[（在一天中的给定小时中在黑暗中的意外数目）/（在一天中的同一小时中在白天的意外数目）]/[（在给定比较小时中当案件小时是黑暗时的意外数目）/（在给定比较小时中当案件小时是在白天时的意外数目）]。这种对与黑暗相关的事故风险的估计不需要暴露数据，而是依赖于全年同一对小时内的事故计数。其中一个小时是一年中黑暗的一部分，但在一年中的其余时间都是白天。全年都有日光的比较小时用于控制季节变化。全年使用同一对小时的目的是尽量减少潜在混杂因素的影响。根据挪威、瑞典和荷兰的事故数据，对与黑暗有关的伤害事故风险进行了估计。据发现，在城市地区的黑暗中，伤害事故的风险增加了近30%，在农村地区增加了近50%，城市和农村地区合并后增加了约40%（调整后的估计）。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
This paper presents anew method for assessing the risk of accidents associated with darkness. The method estimates the risk of accident associated with darkness in terms of an odds ratio, which is defined as follows: [(number of accidents in darkness in a given hour of the day)/(number of accidents in daylight in the same hour of the day)]/[(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is dark)/(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is in daylight)]. This estimate of the risk of accident associated with darkness does not require data on exposure, but relies on the count of accidents in the same pair of hours throughout the year. One of the hours is dark part of the year, but has daylight the rest of the year. The comparison hour, which has daylight the whole year, is used to control for seasonal variations. The aim of relying on the same pair Of hours throughout the year is to minimise the influence of potentially confounding factors. Estimates of the risk of injury accidents associated with darkness are developed on the basis of accident data for Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands. It is found that the risk of an injury accident increases by nearly 30% in darkness in urban areas, by nearly 50% in rural areas, and by about 40% for urban and rural areas combined (adjusted estimate). (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.