DECISIONS BASED ON NUMERICALLY AND VERBALLY EXPRESSED UNCERTAINTIES
DECISIONS BASED ON NUMERICALLY AND VERBALLY EXPRESSED UNCERTAINTIES
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DOI：
10.1037/0096-1523.14.2.281
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发表时间：
1988-05-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
WALLSTEN, TS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BUDESCU, DV;WEINBERG, S;WALLSTEN, TS
采用受试者内两阶段设计来比较基于数字和口头表达概率的决策。在第一阶段，受试者确定模糊概率表达式、数值概率和图形显示之间的近似等价。随后，在第二阶段，他们竞标（实验1）或评级（实验2）赌博基于先前相等的口头，数字和图形描述符。在第一阶段，数字和语言判断是可靠的，内部一致的，并且单调地与显示的概率相关。然而，数字判断在所有方面都明显优越，因为它们在受试者内部和受试者之间的变化要小得多。在第二阶段，响应时间、出价和评级与两组相反的预测都不一致，一组假设不精确的赌博将被避免，另一组假设口头概率将被首选。整个结果的模式是通过模糊概率决策的一般模型来解释的，该模型假设在本任务中，当出现一个模糊的概率词时，人们在形成出价或评级之前，关注一个隐含的概率区间和其中的样本值来解决模糊性。
A two-stage within subjects design was used to compare decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed probabilities. In Stage 1, subjects determined approximate equivalences between vague probability expressions, numerical probabilities, and graphical displays. Subsequently, in Stage 2 they bid for (Experiment 1) or rated (Experiment 2) gambles based on the previously equated verbal, numerical, and graphical descriptors. In Stage 1, numerical and verbal judgments were reliable, internally consistent, and monotonically related to the displayed probabilities. However, the numerical judgments were significantly superior in all respects because they were much less variable within and between subjects. In Stage 2, response times, bids, and ratings were inconsistent with both of two opposing sets of predictions, one assuming that imprecise gambles will be avoided and the other that verbal probabilities will be preferred. The entire pattern of results is explained by means of a general model of decision making with vague probabilities which assumes that in the present task, when presented with a vague probability word, people focus on an implied probability interval and sample values within it to resolve the vagueness prior to forming a bid or a rating.