A low-carbon and hunger-free future for Bangladesh: An ex- ante assessment of synergies and trade-offs in different transition pathways
A low-carbon and hunger-free future for Bangladesh: An ex- ante assessment of synergies and trade-offs in different transition pathways
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DOI：
10.3389/fenvs.2022.977760
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发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
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通讯作者：
S. Moghayer;M. Zurek;Maliha Muzammil;D. Mason-D’Croz;J. Magrath;A. Tabeau;J. Vervoort;T. Achterbosch
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作者：
S. Moghayer;M. Zurek;Maliha Muzammil;D. Mason-D’Croz;J. Magrath;A. Tabeau;J. Vervoort;T. Achterbosch
在气候变化的情况下，为孟加拉国不断增长的全球人口提供食物和营养是一项重大挑战。一个多层次的参与式情景方法与相应的建模和决策支持工具的开发和应用，以支持决策者在制定气候变化下的粮食安全在未来的粮食安全的粮食安全指导的使能政策。本文提出的结果表明，在不同的情况下，农业食品系统可能会在未来十年内转变为孟加拉国相互交织的制度，技术和市场驱动力的相互作用的结果。在情景构建方面，粮食和农业界与气候和能源界聚集在一起。我们还尝试了不同的方式，让那些往往较少被纳入决策的群体，如贫困农村社区和青年，发出自己的声音。情景的量化是由MAGNET进行的，MAGNET是一个基于GTAP的多部门和多区域可计算一般均衡模型。模拟结果全面描绘了孟加拉国农业资源面临的各种相应压力以及经济发展和贸易机会。最后，我们对孟加拉国可持续发展目标（SDG）中零饥饿和零排放相关目标之间的权衡和协同作用进行了事前评估。
Feeding and nourishing a growing global population in Bangladesh is a major challenge in a changing climate. A multi-level participatory scenario approach with corresponding modeling and decision support tools is developed and applied to support decision-makers in developing scenario-guided enabling policy for food security in the future under climate change. The results presented in this paper show how, under different scenarios, the agri-food system may transform in the next decade as a result of the interaction of intertwined institutional, technological, and market drivers in Bangladesh. For scenario building, the food and agriculture community was brought together with the climate and energy community. We also experimented with different ways to bring voices that are often less included in policymaking, such as poor rural communities and youth. The scenario quantification is performed by MAGNET, a GTAP-based multi-sector and multi-region computable general equilibrium model. The simulation results depict a comprehensive picture of corresponding and varied pressures on agricultural resources and opportunities for economic development and trade in Bangladesh. Finally, we did an ex-ante assessment of the trade-offs and synergies between zero-hunger- and zero-emission-related targets within the Bangladesh Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under the developed scenarios.