Mapping environmental suitability for anthrax reemergence in the Arctic
Mapping environmental suitability for anthrax reemergence in the Arctic
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac2527
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发表时间：
2021-10
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
E. Stella;L. Mari;J. Gabrieli;C. Barbante;E. Bertuzzo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Stella;L. Mari;J. Gabrieli;C. Barbante;E. Bertuzzo
最近的研究引起了人们对北极地区与气温变暖有关的传染病可能重新出现的担忧。其中，由于2016年在俄罗斯亚马尔-涅涅茨半岛爆发，炭疽病受到特别关注。了解环境变化如何影响这种病原体的扩散，可以做出明智的决定，以防止进一步的人畜共患病或流行病发作。为此，本研究的目的是确定和调查可能有利于炭疽在北极传播的驱动变量，以建立环境生态位地图，描述这些地区的病原体的未来适用性。为此，我们使用MaxEnt统计学习工具，了解北极特有的变量，如驯鹿群分布和活动层变化。由于这些区域相对缺乏可靠的地理参照信息，因此，由此产生的潜在分布图被认为是初步的，但它们已经可以为生活在潜在风险地区的当地社区提供第一个评估工具。它们还指出了需要进一步调查的领域，以提高环境生态位建模的可靠性，从而提高风险绘图的准确性和对北极社区的有用性。
Recent studies have raised concerns about the potential reemergence of infectious diseases in Arctic regions associated with warming temperatures. Among these, particular attention has been devoted to anthrax, as a consequence of the outbreak that occurred in the Russian Yamalo-Nenets peninsula in 2016. Understanding how environmental change might influence the diffusion of this pathogen could allow informed decisions to prevent further zoonotic or epidemic episodes. To that end, the present study aims to identify and investigate the driving variables that may favor anthrax transmission within the Arctic, in order to build environmental niche maps describing the future suitability of these regions for the pathogen. To do so, we use the MaxEnt statistical learning tool informed by Arctic-specific variables, such as reindeer herd distribution and active-layer variation. Because of the relative lack of reliable georeferenced information in these regions, the resulting potential distribution maps are to be considered preliminary, but they can already provide a first assessment tool for local communities living in potential risk areas. They also indicate areas in which additional investigation is needed to improve the reliability of environmental niche modeling, hence the accuracy of risk mapping and the usefulness to Arctic communities.