Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50646
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发表时间：
2013-08-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Yoon, Jin-Ho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kravitz, Ben;Caldeira, Ken;Yoon, Jin-Ho
太阳地球工程-有意减少地球保留的太阳辐射量，已被提议作为抵消人为温室气体排放的某些气候影响的一种手段。我们目前的结果从实验G1的地球工程模型相互比较项目，其中12个气候模型模拟了气候响应突然翻两番的CO2从工业化前的浓度通过全球统一减少日照辐射平衡。模型显示，这种减少在很大程度上抵消了由于二氧化碳浓度增加四倍而导致的全球平均表面温度升高，并防止了97%的北极海冰损失，否则将在高二氧化碳水平下发生，但与工业化前气候相比，热带地区更冷（-0.3K），两极更暖（+0.8K）。G1年平均降水量减去蒸发量的异常在地球仪92%的地区小于0.2mmday（-1），但一些热带地区的降水量较少，部分原因是潮湿的静态稳定性增加和对流的抑制。G1的全球平均净初级生产力比模拟的工业化前水平增加了120%，主要来自CO2施肥，但部分原因是与没有地球工程的高CO2世界相比，植物热应力减少。所有模型都表明，G1中的统一太阳能地球工程不能同时将区域和全球温度和水文循环强度恢复到工业化前的水平。
Solar geoengineeringdeliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earthhas been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3K) and the poles warmer (+0.8K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday(-1) in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.