Discriminant function for prognostic indexes and probability of death in chronic severe hepatitis B
Discriminant function for prognostic indexes and probability of death in chronic severe hepatitis B
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DOI：
10.1007/s00535-003-1162-3
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Huang, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ke, WM;Ye, YN;Huang, S
背景我们的目的是通过对预后指标和死亡概率的判别分析来确定慢性重型乙型肝炎（CSHB）预后的判别函数。方法。对205例慢性重型乙型肝炎患者（存活组101例，死亡组104例）进行血清总胆红素、凝血酶原活性、白细胞、肌酐、最大腹水深度、肝性脑病、呃逆、消化道出血等指标的判别分析。结果。判别函数为 V = 0.00043 x 总胆红素 (μM) - 0.025 x 凝血酶原活性 (%) + 0.056 x 白细胞 (10(9)/l) + 0.00284 x 肌酐 (μM) + 0.0014 x 腹水最大深度 (mm) + 0.724 x 肝性脑病评分 + 0.078 x singultus 评分 + 0.457 x 消化道出血评分 -2.488。死亡组预测死亡的正确率为92.3%，生存组预测生存的正确率为96.0%。当V值为-无穷大、-4.595、-2.197、-1.386、-0.405、0.405、1.386、2.197、2,944、4.595和无穷大时，死亡后验概率为0%、5%、10%、20%、40%、60%，分别为 80%、90%、95%、99% 和 100%。结论。判别函数是评估慢性重型乙型肝炎预后的一种客观、方便、实用的方法。
Background We aimed to determine a discriminant function for prognosis in chronic severe hepatitis B (CSHB) by discriminant analysis of prognostic indexes and probability of death. Methods. In 205 patients with chronic severe hepatitis B (101 patients in the survival group and 104 patients in the death group), we carried out discriminant analysis of serum total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, white blood cells, creatinine, maximum depth of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, singultus, and digestive tract hemorrhage. Results. The discriminant function was V = 0.00043 x total bilirubin (muM) - 0.025 x prothrombin activity (%) + 0.056 x white blood cells (10(9)/l) + 0.00284 x creatinine (muM) + 0.0014 x maximum depth of ascites (mm) + 0.724 x hepatic encephalopathy score + 0.078 x singultus score + 0.457 x digestive tract hemorrhage score -2.488. The correctness of the function for predicting death in the death group was 92.3%, and that for predicting survival in the survival group was 96.0%. When the V values were -infinity, -4.595, -2.197, -1.386, -0.405, 0.405, 1.386, 2.197, 2,944, 4.595, and infinity, a posterior probabilities of death were 0%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 90%, 95%, 99%, and 100%, respectively. Conclusions. The discriminant function is an objective, convenient, and practical method to assess the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis B.