The impact of information transmission on epidemic outbreaks
The impact of information transmission on epidemic outbreaks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2009.11.009
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发表时间：
2010-05-10
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Simon, Peter L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kiss, Istvan Z.;Cassell, Jackie;Simon, Peter L.
对于许多疾病（例如，在艾滋病毒/艾滋病（包括性传播感染）方面，大多数人都意识到感染的潜在风险，但尽管有旨在提高认识和增强民众反应能力或警觉性的信息，却选择不采取行动（“应对”）。我们提出了一个简单的数学模型，该模型解释了由于疾病的存在而传播的健康信息的扩散，以及可以通过采取措施避免感染或如果感染则通过早期寻求治疗来应对疾病的“活跃”宿主人群。在这个模型中，我们假设整个人群都可能意识到风险，但只有一定比例的人选择适当地做出反应，试图限制他们成为传染性或早期寻求治疗的可能性。该模型还包括一个随时间衰减的响应水平。我们表明，如果信息传播足够快，感染是可以根除的。如果无法做到这一点，信息传播在减少感染率方面具有重要作用。我们得到了模型全局行为的充分刻画，并证明了参数空间可以根据系统的全局吸引子分为三个部分，这三个部分是两个无病平衡点或地方病平衡点之一. (C)2010年由Elsevier Inc.出版
For many diseases (e.g., sexually transmitted infections, STIs), most individuals are aware of the potential risks of becoming infected, but choose not to take action ('respond') despite the information that aims to raise awareness and to increases the responsiveness or alertness of the population. We propose a simple mathematical model that accounts for the diffusion of health information disseminated as a result of the presence of a disease and an 'active' host population that can respond to it by taking measures to avoid infection or if infected by seeking treatment early. In this model, we assume that the whole population is potentially aware of the risk but only a certain proportion chooses to respond appropriately by trying to limit their probability of becoming infectious or seeking treatment early. The model also incorporates a level of responsiveness that decays over time. We show that if the dissemination of information is fast enough, infection can be eradicated. When this is not possible, information transmission has an important effect in reducing the prevalence of the infection. We derive the full characterisation of the global behaviour of the model, and we show that the parameter space can be divided into three parts according to the global attractor of the system which is one of the two disease-free steady states or the endemic equilibrium. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc.